On the 22nd (local time), the Iranian parliament approved the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, causing global financial markets to fluctuate due to the aftermath of the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Investors are avoiding risk assets and shifting funds to safe assets due to rising geopolitical tensions.
According to Bloomberg on the 22nd, following the U.S. strike on Iran's three major nuclear facilities, oil prices surged as much as 11% during trading, reaching $77 per barrel for Brent crude. The dollar, viewed as a safe asset, also showed strength. In contrast, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) All-Country World Index fell approximately 1.5% after Israel's strike on Iran on the 13th.
In response, Neil Burrell, chief investment officer (CIO) at U.K. asset management firm Premier Miton Investors, noted, "The initial reaction will likely lead to a preference for safe assets, and stocks are likely to show weakness," adding, "Particularly, if the Strait of Hormuz is actually blocked, concerns over disruptions in crude oil supply may intensify." In fact, the Iranian parliament has voted to block the strait, and only the final signature from security authorities remains.
The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint through which about 20% of the world's maritime crude oil supply passes. If Iran blocks the strait, its own crude oil exports will also be suspended, making economic damage inevitable, but it has been mentioned as one of the strong measures of response to this airstrike.
Anshy Chubali, a strategist at Swiss investment bank UBS, analyzed, "The current risk environment has undoubtedly escalated, and while market volatility could increase, the shock may be limited unless actual blockade measures are implemented."
Charu Channa, chief strategist at Saxo Markets Singapore, stated, "If Iran's response directly targets U.S. naval assets or leads to a blockade of the strait, oil prices will surge, and inflation concerns will grow," adding, "The safe asset premium of U.S. assets will also come under scrutiny."
For now, market attention is focused on whether the U.S. airstrike will escalate into a full-scale war and the intensity of Iran's retaliation. Experts expressed concern that if the conflict does not remain a short-term event, it could lead to structural changes in the energy and financial markets.