Following the U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities, it has been forecasted that oil prices could surge by as much as 10% in the short term. However, analysis also suggests that maintaining a long-term upward trend in oil prices will be difficult despite geopolitical uncertainties.
According to Fortune on the 22nd (local time), energy market analysis firm Kpler stated, "As tensions rise in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could rise by 7-10% in the short term," adding that "the U.S. military's precision strikes on Iran's key facilities serve as a clear shock factor and are stimulating investors' risk-averse sentiments." It is expected that Brent crude could reach around $85 per barrel.
However, Kpler assessed that "the probability of a continuous rise in oil prices is low." The reasoning includes the production increase moves by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)+, a coalition of major oil-producing countries, as well as Iran's limited retaliatory measures. In fact, OPEC+ has already announced an increase in production for August, with a potential increase of over 411,000 barrels per day being discussed. This is seen as a measure to continue the expansion of production that has taken place in recent months, which may offset supply concerns to some extent.
Iran's retaliatory actions are also a variable. On this day, the Iranian parliament approved a resolution to block the Strait of Hormuz, but the final signature from security authorities has not yet been completed. The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial passage for global oil transport, with an average of 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily, accounting for about 20% of the world's maritime oil transportation. If the strait is actually blocked, there are forecasts that oil prices could surpass $120 per barrel.
However, there is also a viewpoint that a blockade of the strait could serve as a 'self-defeating move' for Iran. Over 90% of Iran's oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz to countries like China. If a blockade becomes a reality, it is inevitable that it would deal a devastating blow to the Iranian economy. Thus, it is also observed that Iran may use such extreme measures as leverage rather than actually taking such drastic actions.
Meanwhile, this airstrike is a unilateral military response by the U.S., carried out eight days after Israel's preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Amid heightened tensions across the Middle East, the direction of the international energy market and geopolitical situation is expected to change based on Iran's response level and any additional measures from the West.