On the 22nd (local time), following the U.S. airstrikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran, Iran hinted at retaliatory attacks. Iran's state broadcaster IRIB reported the same day that "now all American citizens and soldiers have become legitimate targets," and aired a map highlighting ten U.S. military bases in the Middle East. Major foreign news outlets assessed that Iran's ability to launch attacks has been severely damaged due to Israel's successive airstrikes, but it still retains the capability to strike U.S. military bases.
Currently, about 40,000 U.S. troops are stationed in the Middle East. According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the United States has stationed troops in 19 areas throughout the Middle East, with eight of these being permanent bases. Major bases include the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Army and Air Force bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, and forward operating bases in northern Syria and Iraq. Notably, as of the end of last year, 2,500 U.S. troops were stationed in Iraq, with Iraqi U.S. military bases assessed to be highly likely targets for Iran's first strikes.
Iran possesses several missiles that are within range of U.S. military bases. The New York Times (NYT) quoted U.S. officials as saying that "Iran has depleted its stockpile of medium-range missiles," but "still possesses sufficient missiles and offensive drones (unmanned aerial vehicles)." The Guardian also reported that "Israel's airstrikes have targeted long-range ballistic missile launchers intensively," noting that "Iran still possesses short-range missiles and drone weapons."
If Iran launches attacks using short-range missiles with a maximum range of 435 miles (about 700 km), U.S. military bases and facilities located in Syria, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates would fall within striking distance. Nicholas Carl, who studies Iran at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) under the 'Threat Analysis Project,' stated that "While Iran's short-range missiles and cruise missiles have short ranges, making it difficult to launch them directly targeting Israel, several U.S. military bases are within range."
In addition to short-range missiles, Iran holds a large quantity of offensive drones. The NYT reported that "Along with cruise missiles and rockets, Iran has a significant number of offensive drones, which could be particularly effective if they are smuggled to Shia militias in Iraq and launched at U.S. military bases." According to The Guardian, the Shia militias supported by Iran have threatened to target "America's interests in the Middle East" in response to the U.S. participating in support of Israel.
The possibility that Iran could use long-range missiles cannot be ruled out. When the military conflict between Iran and Israel began, Iran possessed about 2,000 medium- and long-range missiles. The NYT reported that "Iran fired hundreds of missiles towards Israel, and Israel destroyed Iran's missile storage facilities," but noted that "it is unclear how many missiles remain in Iran's arsenal." If long-range missiles are used, more U.S. military bases would fall within range.
The fact that Iran has a history of attacking U.S. military bases is also concerning. After the U.S. military assassinated Qasem Soleimani, the then-commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, with a missile in January 2020, Iran fired over ten missiles at U.S. positions, including the Al Asad base in Iraq, in retaliation. During that attack, over 100 U.S. military personnel at Al Asad suffered traumatic brain injuries. CNN reported, referring to Iran's 2020 attack on the Al Asad military base, that "Iran may feel compelled to retaliate to save face, but it could respond in a way that does not involve bloodshed."
There is also significant potential for support from Iran's allied forces. A prominent example is the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who are supported by Iran. The U.S. reached a ceasefire agreement with the Houthi rebels on the 6th of last month, mediated by Oman. However, according to CNN, a senior official from the Houthi rebels warned through social media (SNS) that "President Donald Trump will have to bear the consequences of the U.S. airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities." It is unclear whether this statement signifies the end of the ceasefire between the U.S. and the Houthis, but the Houthis have previously indicated that they would consider U.S. participation in attacks on Iran as a violation of the ceasefire.