It is reported that two supertankers made a U-turn empty-handed at the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz immediately after the U.S. attack on Iran. Concerns about the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a major global oil transport route, are growing.
According to Bloomberg News, two supertankers, the Coswizardmerlake and the South Royalty, changed their course sharply at the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz on the 22nd (local time), right after the U.S. bombing of Iran. The ships, which were headed towards the Persian Gulf, turned towards the Arabian Sea.
The two tankers are supertankers that can each load up to 2 million barrels, and it is interpreted that they decided to turn back to avoid the heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg reported that no unusual signs were detected in the course changes of the two vessels.
The Strait of Hormuz is a passage through which about a quarter of the world's oil transportation occurs. For liquefied natural gas (LNG), one-fifth of global maritime transport passes through this strait.
Most of the oil passing through this strait is headed towards Asian markets, including Korea, China, Japan, and India.
In particular, the Strait of Hormuz has a relatively shallow depth, limiting the passage routes for large tankers, and most of these large ships must pass through Iranian territorial waters, which effectively means that Iran controls the strait.
During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, the passage through the Strait of Hormuz was threatened due to attacks on Iranian tankers and the placement of mines, but it has never led to a complete blockade.
Even during the early 2010s, when sanctions were imposed by the U.S. and other Western countries, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was considered a means of Iranian pressure on the U.S. but did not materialize.
However, concerns about a blockade of the strait are rising due to the recent U.S. airstrike. The Iranian parliament (Majlis) voted on the 22nd to impose a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the U.S. bombing of its nuclear facilities, with the final decision resting with the Iranian National Security Council (SNSC).
If the strait is blocked, international oil prices are expected to soar uncontrollably. On that day, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures surged to $78.40 per barrel shortly after the market opened.
However, some analyses suggest that considering the political and economic impacts, a blockade will not be easy.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance dismissed the notion in an NBC interview, saying, "A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would be a suicidal act from the perspective of the Iranians; the entire Iranian economy operates through the Strait of Hormuz. I think a blockade just doesn’t make any sense."