This is what President Donald Trump said on the 18th (local time) about the head of his country's intelligence agency, whom he appointed himself.
The "she" refers to Tulsi Gabbard, the Director General of the U.S. National Intelligence Agency (DNI). She oversees all 16 intelligence agencies, including the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Director General Gabbard reported to Congress three months ago that "Iran is currently not developing nuclear weapons."
However, Trump dismissed the evaluation of his country's top intelligence agency three months later. He is currently considering plans to deploy U.S. troops again in response to an Israeli attack on Iran. The justification for the attack is nuclear weapons.
On the 19th, Trump asserted, "I think Iran is very close (to nuclear weapons)."
According to ABC on the 20th, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said, "Iran has already met all the conditions for producing nuclear weapons; only a decision from the supreme leader remains."
Spokesperson Leavitt added, "Iran's nuclear weapons production will be completed within the next few weeks," noting, "It will become an existential threat to the world."
The United States announced it would decide on military action within two weeks, depending on Iran's decision to abandon its nuclear program.
The world is paying attention to whether Iran truly possesses nuclear weapons or has obtained technology for nuclear weapon manufacturing.
Was Iran really on the verge of acquiring a nuclear bomb? Or, like Iraq 22 years ago, was it a nonexistent threat that pulled the trigger for war?
Experts emphasized that there are concepts that must be distinguished when discussing Iran's nuclear capabilities.
These are breakout time and weaponization. The time and technology needed to produce the essential "materials and supplies" for a nuclear bomb and the efforts and processes involved in actually completing the "cooking" with those materials are completely different.
At this point, experts assess that Iran has made significant progress in preparing its materials.
To create nuclear weapons, highly enriched uranium approaching 90% concentration is needed. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran holds about 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium. Mathematically, if the enrichment rate is raised, it could obtain high-grade uranium capable of producing 1 to 2 nuclear bombs within a few weeks. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claim this is evidence that Iran's nuclear weapon development is 'imminent.'
However, having the materials does not mean that the cooking is completed immediately. The enrichment of uranium and the actual manufacture of nuclear weapons are entirely different technological domains.
To make a nuclear bomb, the nuclear material obtained must be miniaturized enough to be loaded onto a warhead. Considerable weaponization technology is also needed to create a detonator that can explode at the desired moment.
Rafael Grossi, the IAEA Director General, stated in a CNN interview on the 17th, "There is no evidence that Iran is systematically moving toward nuclear weapons."
Previously, Director General Gabbard evaluated that it would take a maximum of three years for Iran to actually manufacture and deploy nuclear weapons.
The Israeli media outlet Haaretz interpreted that this attack is more about a political message than about actually removing threats.
Haaretz emphasized, "Netanyahu has claimed for the past 20 years that Iran's nuclear weapon development is imminent," implying it is a politically outdated offensive.
Military experts analyzed that if Israel truly judged that Iran's nuclear weapon development was imminent, it should have focused more intensively on attacking the Fordow enrichment facility, which is buried deep underground and difficult to strike.
Initially, Israel concentrated its attacks on the Natanz nuclear facility, which has the largest uranium enrichment facility in Iran. It did not touch the Fordow enrichment facility, which is the most likely place to have nuclear weapons ready for deployment.
Fordow is one of the most important uranium enrichment facilities in Iran. It is built about 80 to 90 meters underground beneath a mountain. This is the nuclear facility that Trump aims to attack with bunker-buster missiles that can destroy deep underground.
Experts are concerned that this situation is remarkably similar to the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.
At that time, the George W. Bush administration initiated the war on the grounds that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD). However, no weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq by the time the war ended.
Later, the Senate Intelligence Committee and the U.K. Chilcot Inquiry concluded that "the intelligence at that time was deeply flawed and politically manipulated." Criticism followed that nonexistent threats were fabricated to justify the war.
Trump has frequently criticized the neoconservatives, who sparked the Iraq war, as warmongers.
If conclusive evidence regarding nuclear weapons does not emerge from Iran this time, Trump, who has lambasted the 'warmongering neoconservatives,' would prove that he is just like them.
Some warn that the quagmire of the Iraq war that had trapped the Bush administration could be recreated as 'Iran's quagmire' for Trump.
The British BBC reported, "Trump, who criticized in the 2016 Republican primaries that 'Bush invaded Iraq on a lie,' is now contemplating an attack on Iran, even while ignoring the words of the intelligence director he appointed."