“Uncle, whatever you want, just let me know.
I’ll take care of everything.”
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra of Thailand, June 15, 2025

Words spoken by 38-year-old youngest Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra during a call with Cambodia’s Senate President Hun Sen on the 15th (local time).

On the 19th, when details of the currency conversation that both countries acknowledged as true leaked, Thailand was thrown into turmoil. The economy is already faltering due to concerns over an economic recession and tariff bombs originating from the United States.

Amid this, the controversy over the Prime Minister’s ‘humiliation diplomacy’ has become a powder keg threatening the survival of the regime, surpassing mere verbal blunders. There are even alarms that the longstanding border disputes with Cambodia could lead to the Prime Minister’s ousting or even a coup.

Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra (center) publicly apologizes and performs the traditional Thai greeting during a press conference at the Government House in Bangkok on the 19th. /Courtesy of Yonhap News Agency

The incident started with a shooting at the Thai-Cambodian border in May. One Cambodian soldier was killed during the gunfight, reigniting longstanding tensions between the two countries.

Prime Minister Paetongtarn had a lengthy currency conversation with President Hun Sen in the process of addressing the conflict.

According to reports on the 20th from AP and others, Paetongtarn referred to the commander of the eastern region of Thailand as ‘an opponent.’ She also criticized General Padklang, the commander of the 2nd Army, saying, “He only speaks words that do not help the nation.”

She then humiliatedly referred to Hun Sen as ‘Uncle’ and made a statement saying, “If you want anything, just let me know. I will take care of everything.”

Anti-government protesters gather in front of the Government House in Bangkok on Thursday the 19th, demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. /Courtesy of Yonhap News Agency

When the phone call conversation file was made public, public opinion in Thailand erupted. Criticism poured in, saying, ‘She sold the pride of the nation and the military.’

Prime Minister Paetongtarn explained that it was a “negotiation technique to ease tensions and bring about peace,” but it was insufficient to placate the angry public sentiment.

The majority of Thais viewed this statement as evidence that a young leader with little experience could not adequately protect the national interest.

Immediately, the core coalition partner, the Bhumjaithai Party, which holds 69 seats, declared that it had incurred irreparable damage to national sovereignty and military honor and announced its withdrawal from the coalition. This decision left the coalition government led by Prime Minister Paetongtarn’s Phua Thai Party in a precarious position, barely exceeding the majority (251 seats) in the House of Representatives (500 seats) by just one seat.

While the government won’t collapse immediately, it is now in a precarious situation where any additional defection from the opposition or coalition could lead to its ouster.

Prime Minister Hun Manet of Cambodia (center) walks with Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra of Thailand (left) at the Peace Palace in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, last April. /Courtesy of Yonhap News Agency

Separately from the political controversy, relations between Thailand and Cambodia are also deteriorating to their worst state.

Since last week, Cambodia has completely banned the import of Thai fruit and popular TV dramas, citing anti-Thai sentiment.

The Guardian reported, citing experts, that it was “a symbolic measure to reduce dependency on Thai culture and to protest against border disputes.”

Thailand has also responded with countermeasures, significantly tightening border checkpoint procedures. It threatened to cut off electricity and internet services to Cambodia.

CNN pointed out that “the Thai economy is currently experiencing its worst recession in a decade” and that “Thailand is at its most economically vulnerable point, compounded by uncertainties resulting from changes in the U.S. tariff policy towards China.”

In such a situation, external conflicts are likely to ignite internal discontent. Experts analyze that the long-standing border disputes, combined with Prime Minister Paetongtarn’s leadership crisis and the unstable economic situation in Thailand, could lead to his ousting.

Commander-in-Chief of the Royal Thai Army General Pana Klaewblaudtuk (right) shakes hands with Cambodian General Mao Sophan (left) at the Thailand-Cambodia border in the Kap Choeng area last month. /Courtesy of Yonhap News Agency

Thailand and Cambodia are among the countries in Southeast Asia with severe border disputes. The root of the conflict lies in the border lines drawn by the French during their colonial rule in 1907.

Thailand and Cambodia share a border spanning 817 km. Most of this boundary is based on a map created during the French occupation 118 years ago.

A complex historical background also plays a role. Cambodia boasts a legacy as a descendant of the Khmer Empire that once dominated Southeast Asia. However, development has stagnated especially during the rise of the Khmer Rouge in the 1970s.

Since the era of the Kingdom of Siam, Thailand has been the older brother in Southeast Asia. In this delicate relationship, Thai citizens tend to be intolerant of their leaders showing subservience to Cambodia.

Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra arrives at Don Mueang Airport in Bangkok in August 2023 and greets supporters alongside his youngest daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra (right). /Courtesy of Yonhap News Agency

Experts analyze that the current Prime Minister naming the military leadership as enemies during a currency conversation with a foreign head of state is akin to giving a justification for a coup to the military.

The Thai military claims to be the protector of the royal family and the nation. Using this pretext, they have frequently staged coups when political stability falters. In modern Thai history, military coups have occurred approximately every 5 to 6 years. Since 1932, the Thai military has a record of 14 coups over a span of 93 years.

Both the father of Paetongtarn, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and Paetongtarn’s aunt, former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, were ousted by military coups.

The Royal Thai Army has already stated, “We are prepared to carry out high-intensity operations should the border situation worsen.”

CNN cited experts noting, “The diplomatic mistakes made by the young prime minister, intertwined with economic troubles, are shaking the entire political sphere of Thailand,” adding that, “If Bhumjaithai Party and other coalition partners also break away, a change of regime is inevitable.”