The era of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (86), who has ruled as a 'living god' or 'god's representative' in Iran for 35 years since 1989, is coming to an end.
On the 18th, U.K.-based anti-Iran media outlet Iran International and the Jerusalem Post reported that "Khamenei has recently lost all his closest aides, who were like his hands and feet, due to an Israeli military precision strike, and has fallen into severe mental shock."
Currently, he is said to be hiding in an underground bunker in northern Iran with his family, having relinquished all power and completely excluded from major decision-making.
At present, as Iran faces a national crisis, the god’s representative who leads the theocratic system has fled to an underground bunker, marking an unprecedented situation where the wartime command has effectively collapsed.
In the Iranian ruling system, the supreme leader reigns above the president. He is an absolute power who makes final decisions on all state affairs of importance, including judicial, diplomatic, and defense matters. The religious leader essentially plays the role of a king in a constitutional monarchy.
Khamenei, who has served as the supreme leader for 35 years, has also been regarded as synonymous with Iran's sovereignty.
Israel has directly targeted his divinity. Through this airstrike, Israel meticulously identified and eliminated key command personnel and scientists overseeing the nuclear and missile programs, striking them one by one. It was closer to a sophisticated decapitation operation than an indiscriminate bombing.
From the first-ranked chief of staff of the Iranian military to the commander of the Revolutionary Guard and the supreme commander during wartime, the military leadership of Iran, which had played the role of Khamenei's right hand, evaporated in an instant due to this attack.
Experts analyzed that this was a high-intensity psychological operation aimed at dismantling Khamenei's base of power and completely isolating him.
The international community is also directly targeting Khamenei, the head of state. U.S. President Donald Trump said on the 15th, "Israel attempted to kill Khamenei, but I suggested to watch for the time being," indicating that his remarks seemed to imply he held the power over Khamenei's life and death.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant went a step further. On the 17th, Gallant warned, "Khamenei must be aware that his regime could end like that of Saddam Hussein."
It is impossible for a leader who cannot guarantee his own safety to govern a country. The instances of the U.S. and Israel openly discussing the death and ousting of the Iranian supreme leader are a clear indication of how much Khamenei's authority has diminished.
Khamenei is the one who has rapidly reversed the Iranian society, which had westernized faster than any Middle Eastern country. Since taking power in 1989, Khamenei has enforced the wearing of hijabs for women and has thoroughly rejected Western culture, such as mini skirts.
Khamenei also initiated the nuclear development. Iran has continually invested enormous sums to advance its uranium enrichment technology. The current enrichment level is nearing 60%, gradually approaching the 90% needed to manufacture nuclear weapons.
Khamenei crushed the Iranian version of the democracy movement, the 'Green Movement,' in 2009, when millions protested against the fraudulent elections with tanks. The combination of oppressive rule and nuclear weapon development has led Iran to isolate itself from the international community during Khamenei's tenure. The ongoing trade sanctions have devastated the Iranian economy and the lives of its citizens.
According to a recent survey by the Iran-focused research institute GAMAAN, based in the Netherlands, 90% of Iranians responded that they do not support the 'Islamic Republic' system, indicating that public sentiment has plummeted.
The world's attention is already turning to 'Iran without Khamenei.'
Karim Sadjadpour, senior analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, commented in an interview with France 24, "Khamenei is facing a dilemma of his own making," adding that "he lacks the physical and cognitive insights needed to lead Iran into war."
Khamenei's death will herald a bloody power struggle over succession. Currently, Khamenei's second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, is mentioned as a strong successor.
Arash Azizi, senior researcher at Boston University’s Middle Eastern Studies, noted, "Khamenei, who is 86 and entering his twilight years, has usually had everyday command held by various factions competing for the future. This war has only accelerated the pace of power transition."
There are grim forecasts that the power vacuum could spiral into near civil war chaos. The Islamic hardliners of the Revolutionary Guard strongly oppose the hereditary succession of the supreme leader to Khamenei's bloodline.
The New York Times (NYT), citing experts, predicted that "directly attacking Khamenei would be an act of escalating the current conflict to an extreme level," noting that it could have unpredictable and widespread consequences throughout the Middle East.