As military clashes escalate between Israel and Iran, pro-Iran armed groups in the Middle East appear to be exercising caution. In particular, the silence of the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, which previously indicated active involvement in Israel's ground operations, has drawn attention to these groups' combat capabilities and shifts in the power dynamics within the Middle East.
According to various foreign media, including Bloomberg, on the 17th (local time), even amidst ongoing Israeli airstrikes on Iranian territory, armed groups in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon, which are key elements of Iran's deterrence, are hardly engaging in battle. Hezbollah's leader, Naim Qassem, expressed condolences for the deaths of senior Iranian military officers but did not show intentions to participate in retaliation. According to sources in the Lebanese government, Hezbollah has informed the military leadership of its stance not to intervene in this war.
This leads to expectations that cooperation between Iran and the axis of resistance (military groups opposing Israel and the U.S. in the Middle East), which was considered the worst-case scenario for a full-scale war, is unlikely to materialize.
Hezbollah, a prominent proxy of Iran, was once regarded as the world's most powerful non-state armed group and has served as a key strategic asset for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). After the outbreak of the Gaza War, Hezbollah mobilized various weapons, including cruise missiles, rockets, and drones, in engagements with Israel, prompting experts to evaluate that "Israel would not have a 100% advantage in a full-scale war."
However, following Israel's large-scale bombardment, Hezbollah's power has significantly weakened, leading to the loss of its existing position. Many high-ranking officials, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah, have been eliminated, and its arsenals and key strongholds have been destroyed. Local estimates indicate that targeted attacks by Israel have resulted in damages amounting to $11 billion (approximately 15 trillion won) in southern Lebanon alone, and securing funds for recovery is proving difficult.
Israel's ongoing sanctions also seem to have dampened Hezbollah's morale. Last year, Israel detonated a large number of beacons and mobile devices used by Hezbollah members, and it continues to conduct frequent reconnaissance over the capital Beirut using drones and fighter jets.
Internally, Lebanon is also restraining Hezbollah. This year, Army Chief of Staff and pro-U.S. Joseph Aoun was appointed as the new president, following a two-year vacancy in the presidency, and has begun efforts to rein in Hezbollah. In his acceptance speech, President Aoun stated, "A new chapter in Lebanese history will open," expressing ambitions to rebuild a country ravaged by Hezbollah's war.
According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said, "The government has achieved about 80% of its goal of disarming Hezbollah in the southernmost regions," and emphasized, "The state must monopolize weapons across Lebanese territory."
Samy Nader, director of the Levant Institute in Lebanon, analyzed that "Hezbollah is facing opposition from within Lebanon, and there is growing dissatisfaction among its support base regarding the expenses of war."
There are also predictions that the Yemeni Houthi rebels will emerge as a central force to directly attack Israel. According to Reuters, on that day, Mohammad al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi political bureau, declared, "Zionist (Israeli) groups have crossed the red line by targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, and we will intervene in support of Iran."
Earlier, the Houthis claimed on the 15th that they had launched a ballistic missile attack on the central Israeli region of Jaffa in the previous 24 hours, marking the first time they had supported Israeli airstrikes among Iranian proxies.
However, there are claims that the Houthi intervention will be limited. Geographically, they are distant from Israel and primarily focus on disrupting maritime transportation. Additionally, given Hezbollah's compromised status, it is argued that the Houthi rebels lack the capacity to significantly change the situation.
In light of this, The Economist assessed, "The network of Iran's regional militias and proxy groups, once referred to as the 'axis of resistance', is disintegrating."