The conflict triggered by Israel's large-scale airstrikes on Iran has continued for four days, increasing the sense of crisis within Russia. There are concerns that if Iran, a key ally in the Middle East, is shaken by this war, it could deal a deadly blow to Russia's anti-Western solidarity plan.
According to the Washington Post on the 16th (local time), the Russian government is closely monitoring how the conflict between Israel and Iran may affect its own country. Having already lost its long-time ally Syria due to the downfall of Bashar al-Assad's dictatorship last year, there are fears that losing Iran as well could effectively collapse the anti-Western front.
Internal perspectives in Russia regarding the conflict between the two countries are constantly changing. On the 13th, when Israel first attacked Iranian nuclear facilities and military command centers, some high-ranking officials in Moscow assessed it as an advantageous opportunity for their country.
Konstantin Malofeyev, a media mogul known to be a close associate of Russian President Vladimir Putin, noted, "Only a summit between President Putin and President Trump can prevent a global disaster," claiming that Russia could leverage the U.S. withdrawal of support for Ukraine to bring Iran back to the negotiating table on the nuclear agreement.
Sergei Markov, a political analyst in Russia, also analyzed, "As the U.S. concentrates its resources on defense in the Middle East, Ukraine is unlikely to expect additional support," adding that "the current war framework created by the West could work to Russia's advantage."
Immediately after the conflict began, President Putin called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump to express his willingness to mediate, signaling active intervention. Russian analysts also believe that this situation could divert international attention away from the Russia-Ukraine war while simultaneously improving the country's financial situation due to rising oil prices.
However, as Israel's airstrikes expanded to major cities in Iran, including the capital Tehran, and energy infrastructure, the mood in Moscow has changed rapidly. Konstantin Zatulin, director of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Institute, who is well-versed in Russia's security situation, assessed, "The current situation is heading in a very dangerous direction for Russia."
Negative outlooks are being raised continuously. One analyst familiar with Russia's diplomatic situation stated in an interview with the Washington Post, "It is uncertain whether Israel's pressure will weaken the Iranian regime," adding that "the sustainability of the current regime will be a crucial variable." He further stated, "The regime may unite in the face of external threats, but conversely, there is also a possibility that internal fractures could deepen and lead to collapse."
Until now, Iran has served as a key partner for Russia under the Khamenei regime. The two countries elevated their relationship by signing a strategic partnership treaty last January, and Russia has been importing Iranian drones and missiles in large quantities since the early days of the Ukraine invasion, utilizing them in attacks on the capital Kyiv. However, there is skepticism about whether the new leaders that may come to power following the fall of the Khamenei regime will maintain close ties with Russia.
Even if the current regime is maintained without change, an acceleration of nuclear proliferation movements in the Middle East could work unfavorably for Russia. Konstantin Kosachev, vice chairman of the Russian Federation Council, warned, "If Iran expands its counterattacks against Israel, we will head towards the worst-case scenario." Leonid Slutsky, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, also urged that "active intervention from the international community is necessary," stating that "a local conflict in the Middle East could escalate into a world war."
President Putin has consistently expressed his willingness to mediate, but responses from the U.S. and European sides have been lukewarm. Following the 14th, Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for the Kremlin, stated, "Russia is prepared to provide mediation services," but no significant developments have been detected so far. President Trump is reportedly considering some of Putin's proposals following their phone call, but it is known that most major European countries hold negative positions.
Ultimately, Russia is expected to actively support Iran in order to maintain the Khamenei regime. According to the Washington Post, Russia is reportedly considering providing Iran with military equipment, including drones, as well as food and humanitarian aid.