Last week's Israeli airstrikes on Iran targeted the destruction of nuclear facilities and scientists related to its nuclear program. Iran's largest uranium enrichment facility in Natanz was destroyed, and about 10 Iranian nuclear scientists were killed in the attack. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Israel destroyed key components of Iran's supply chain for nuclear weapons production. However, Iran remains capable of continuing its nuclear development.
On the 15th (local time), The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, "Israel's biggest challenge is to eliminate Fordow, Iran's most powerful nuclear facility." Fordow is located in a mountainous area near Qom, a Shiite holy site, and is a key site for uranium enrichment. Richard Nephew, who participated in the Iranian nuclear negotiations during the Barack Obama administration, noted, "If Israel is concerned about Iran's nuclear capabilities, the key is Fordow."
The American political media Axios reported, "One factor that will determine whether Iran's attack will be a 'brave success' or a 'dangerous mistake' is the fate of the Fordow uranium enrichment facility," adding that "Fordow is a facility built deep underground in the mountains, and unprecedented creative tactics or U.S. support would be needed to destroy it." Yehiel Leiter, Israel's ambassador to the United States, stated in an interview with Fox News on the 13th, "This operation must ultimately be completed by removing Fordow."
Israel needs U.S. assistance to destroy Fordow, the core of Iran's nuclear program. Experts predict that unless the U.S. supports with powerful conventional bombs known as bunker busters, Israel will struggle to completely destroy Fordow on its own. However, the U.S. has drawn a clear line regarding Israel's attacks on Iran. President Donald Trump stated on his social media platform Truth Social, "The United States is not involved in the attack on Iran."
Even if Israel succeeds in partially destroying Fordow through its drone attacks, WSJ reported that if uranium stockpiles remain in Fordow, Iran's nuclear weapons development could continue. Iran has been stockpiling enriched uranium in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. Of Iran's uranium stockpile, 60% is high-enriched uranium, enough to develop approximately 10 nuclear weapons. While Israel significantly destroyed key facilities in Natanz and Isfahan with this airstrike, Fordow remains intact.
Moreover, Iran has not provided the IAEA with CCTV footage of its centrifuge production facilities for years. If centrifuges remain in Fordow, it is widely expected that weapon-grade material can be produced in a relatively short time from the stockpiled uranium. David Albright, director of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), noted, "If Iran can continue enriching uranium at Fordow, it could produce fuel for nine nuclear weapons within a month and by the end of the second month, a total of 13 fuels could be produced."
There are also assessments that if Israel does not completely destroy Fordow, the risk of accelerating Iran's nuclear weapons development increases. WSJ stated, "Israel's goal of neutralizing Iran's nuclear program or delaying it for several years depends on the outcome of future military operations," adding that, "If it fails to meet that objective, Iran could expel international inspectors and significantly accelerate its nuclear weapons development."
Shima Shine, a former senior official of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, said, "The success of Israel's military operations largely depends on the weakening of Iran's nuclear program, which has yet to be confirmed," adding that, "This attack could lead to the worst outcome by justifying and encouraging Iran's secret nuclear weapons development attempts." Albright also stated, "Israel has not yet achieved its desired level, making it take months or more for Iran to secure weapon-grade material and at least a year to produce a nuclear weapon."