This year, the possibility has been raised that the 'net immigration' in the United States will record a negative figure for the first time in half a century. Experts point out that the anti-immigration policies triggered by the Trump administration could disrupt not only demographic changes but also the growth structure of the U.S. economy.
According to The Washington Post (WP) on the 16th (local time), the Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) released a report predicting that the net immigration in the U.S. will record a negative figure for the first time since the 1970s in 2025. This means that there will be more immigrants departing or being deported than those entering the U.S. Consequently, the net immigration figures in the U.S. have seen an annual increase of hundreds of thousands to over a million for about 50 years, but this upward trend will be halted in 2025.
This change coincides with the time when President Donald Trump's strict immigration policies began to be fully implemented. The Trump administration has set 2025 as a turning point for immigration regulation and is exerting its full efforts on the deportation of undocumented immigrants and regulation of legal immigrants.
The report also identified factors stemming from Trump as the main cause. It interprets that a combination of policy factors including ▲ the effective closure of the southern border ▲ restrictions on student visas ▲ the increase of individuals losing their residency permits during the Biden administration ▲ and the expansion of deportations have led to this outcome.
Changes are already being detected on the ground. Last year, the proportion of foreign workers in the U.S. reached an all-time high, but it is estimated that more than one million will have left the labor market after March 2025. As a result, hemorrhaging in low-wage service industries, particularly in agriculture, construction, food service, and nursing services, is forecasted to be significant.
For instance, in Florida, a case has emerged in which around 40 staff members from Haiti and Cuba resigned due to residency status issues, leading to an expected increase of over $600,000 (approximately 817.86 million won) in annual labor costs. The facility’s management expressed in an interview with WP, "It is not easy to find replacement workers in the short term."
The student visa policy is also adding to the confusion. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently hinted at the possibility of revoking student visas from China, and last May, Harvard University temporarily suspended its authority to accept foreign students. This measure was halted based on a court ruling, but the anxiety throughout the education sector has not easily subsided.
The decrease in immigrants is leading to a chain effect of reduced productivity due to labor shortages and intensified inflation. Adriana Kugler, a board member of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), noted, "The labor shortage in agriculture, hospitality, and other sectors is already increasing price pressures," adding, "The decrease in immigration, combined with the aging population and retiring baby boomers, is exacerbating the structural problems of the declining labor flow."
Earlier, the Trump administration formalized its goal of deporting one million immigrants, including undocumented residents, by the end of this year. A budget proposal for immigration enforcement, worth $150 billion (approximately 207 trillion won), has already passed the House and is currently under review in the Senate.
Additionally, the White House is implementing policies to encourage the voluntary departure of immigrants. It offers support of up to $3 billion (approximately 4 trillion won) in penalties waived for voluntary departures and provides a $1,000 support grant along with airfare. An anonymous woman from Venezuela, who lawfully entered through the Biden administration’s humanitarian program in 2023, stated, "I was afraid that if I was arrested for being undocumented, I would be separated from my children," adding, "I returned to my home country with my family last March."
Some argue that the core issue is the reduction of immigration inflow rather than outflow due to the Trump administration's deportation policies. Stan Veuger, an AEI researcher, emphasized, "The significant decrease in immigration through not only the southern border but also various legal means is the problem."
There are warnings that these changes could spread to national-level structural issues such as the social security schemes, fiscal policy, and long-term growth rates in the United States. In fact, immigrants in the labor market reached record highs last year and have been engaged in various low-wage industries, energizing the U.S. economic growth after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Wendy Edelberg, a researcher at Brookings, stated, "Immigration has been a key driver of U.S. growth so far, but starting from 2025, it could actually become a constraint on growth," adding, "There needs to be a reassessment of immigration policies from a long-term perspective."