China has decided to conditionally resume rare earth exports to U.S. corporations. According to the recent provisional agreement reached in London between the U.S. and China, China will immediately approve rare earth export permits but limit their validity to six months. This structure allows for re-imposing restrictions if trade conflicts reignite, seen as a strategy to strengthen strategic leadership in future negotiations.
On the 11th (local time), The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that China presented this authorization policy as a condition for partially easing export restrictions on key components such as jet engines and ethane. Since the rare earths used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and military equipment are critical to stabilizing the U.S. supply chain, this measure is expected to have a direct impact on American industries.
This agreement is based on the negotiation framework established during the Geneva talks in May and will officially be implemented once final signatures are completed by President Trump and President Xi Jinping. President Trump noted, "China has agreed to preemptively supply magnets and rare earths," emphasizing progress in negotiations; however, experts analyzed that the six-month validity period setting is essentially a 'time bomb' with a strong negotiation leverage characteristic.
Opinions on this measure are mixed in Washington. While there are positive responses regarding the acquisition of rare earths, concerns are raised that the limited permit structure may actually increase uncertainty for long-term supply stability. Especially given China's previous history of weaponizing rare earth exports, there are concerns that tensions could escalate again, and sanctions could be swiftly re-implemented, indicating that structural risks remain.
WSJ analyzed that this agreement is merely a temporary easing of certain export restrictions, and the fundamental competition for technological hegemony continues. The U.S. maintains controls over strategic technologies classified as advanced AI semiconductors, while China continues its efforts to strengthen control over key minerals. Both sides are expected to continue additional negotiations until August, but there remains significant uncertainty about long-term trust recovery.