There are projections that the labor shortage in the U.S. restaurant industry will intensify due to the Donald Trump administration's strong crackdown on immigrants. This is because the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) recently raided places where immigrants primarily work, such as restaurants, leading to difficulties in hiring immigrants.
On the 8th (local time), the Financial Times (FT) reported, citing the National Restaurant Association (NRA), that more than one-fifth of the U.S. restaurant workforce are immigrants. Most of them are qualified to work legally in the U.S., but the industry has reported that about 1 million undocumented immigrants are being employed.
Restaurant operators have been struggling with labor shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic, but they all agree that the situation has worsened since the Trump administration took office. Tony Fuhrman, who operates five restaurants in Maryland, said, "Some employees are afraid to come to work since immigration authorities publicly began enforcing crackdowns on immigrants."
Recently, ICE has been conducting intensified crackdowns on immigrants. On the 6th, ICE agents raided the garment wholesale market and the large retailer Home Depot in Los Angeles (LA), arresting 44 undocumented immigrants. Both places are where immigrants typically gather to find jobs. ICE also arrested undocumented immigrants in Paramount and Compton the following day.
The restaurant industry has also become a target of the ICE crackdowns. According to FT, recent visits by immigration officials to verify employees' work eligibility have become frequent at restaurants across the U.S. In May alone, about 100 restaurants in the Washington area were subjected to ICE crackdowns.
Moreover, the Federal Supreme Court decided on the 19th of last month that the Trump administration could cancel Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Venezuelan nationals in the U.S., leaving restaurants that employ legally residing immigrants in a precarious position. About 350,000 Venezuelan nationals are at risk of losing their legal right to stay and work in the U.S. and face deportation.
According to FT, about 20% of Venezuelans who received TPS in 2021 are working in the restaurant industry. Jacob Monty, an immigration attorney advising restaurant chains in Texas, noted, "Many client companies are facing difficulties in replacing employees who had previously received work authorization due to the Trump administration's cancellation of their status."
With continued anti-immigrant policies, the outlook is expected to worsen. On the 9th, President Trump decided to fully ban nationals from 12 countries, including Iran, from entering the U.S. Entry restrictions for nationals from seven countries, including Cuba and Venezuela, have also been partially imposed. This has made it effectively difficult for new immigrants, who have been sustaining the U.S. restaurant industry, to enter.
Irena Stein, who operates the Venezuelan restaurant "Alma Cocina Latina" in Baltimore, said, "A Venezuelan restaurant cannot operate without Venezuelans," adding, "If we cannot hire immigrants, we will have to close our doors." Stein has been hiring 10 chefs under the O-1 visa, granted to individuals with extraordinary ability in fields such as science, arts, and business, since 2015.
The outlook for the entire restaurant industry is also grim due to the crackdowns on immigrants. The global credit rating agency Fitch downgraded its outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry from "neutral" to "negative" last month. Restaurants are under pressure to raise prices due to immigration crackdowns, high tariffs, and rising labor costs but find it difficult to pass on these additional costs to price-sensitive consumers.