U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated a strong tariff policy since regaining power, but reports show that actual implementation has been lacking. However, this has increased uncertainty in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
On the 4th (local time), CNN reported that the Trump administration began a tariff offensive last April, but no substantial trade negotiations with major trading partners have been successful. Initially, the U.S. government had announced plans to impose dozens of tariffs within 90 days, but it has been pointed out that the effectiveness has waned as deadlines were passed.
In the actual industrial field, side effects are becoming apparent. According to last month's survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the manufacturing economy has continued to contract for three consecutive months. Factory managers participating in the survey identified supply chain instability due to tariff policy as the biggest problem. One respondent evaluated, "The confusion caused by tariffs is similar to the situation at the beginning of COVID-19."
Another respondent noted, "Government expenditure is decreasing or being delayed, and tariffs are also acting as a burden," adding that "companies do not have the capacity to accumulate inventory."
Despite the escalating chaos on-site, the White House has not been able to produce concrete results. The Trump administration sent official letters to trading partners this week, requesting them to submit negotiation proposals. However, many evaluate that these deadlines were set impulsively and carry no significance beyond diplomatic pressure.
President Trump has recently criticized China strongly and increased pressure on it, but the 90-day ceasefire agreement with China is becoming precarious. Negotiations with Japan and the European Union are also at a standstill.
This uncertainty is also impacting the market. The projection that the U.S. economy could suffer if the tariff policy continues is becoming increasingly realistic. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has warned that this year the growth rate of the U.S. economy could decrease due to the effects of tariffs. Shortly after this news broke, the New York Stock Exchange showed a downward trend.
However, the positive employment figures released on the same day showed a favorable trend, somewhat recovering investor sentiment. Thanks to a surge in tech stocks, all major U.S. indices closed higher.
CNN analyzed, "While it may not be felt immediately, the damage is already becoming a reality," and assessed that "former President Trump is showing a tendency to evade responsibility, while a strange form of stability is appearing in the economy."