The Vietnamese government will abolish the 'two-child policy' it has maintained for 37 years.
It is a paradoxical situation where a country that once worried about overpopulation is now pushing for more children.
The Washington Post (WP) reported on the 4th (local time) that the Vietnamese National Assembly has abolished the two-child policy and has allowed couples to freely decide the number of children, timing, and spacing without restriction.
Since 2007, Vietnam has been called the 'young dragon of Asia' and has experienced rapid growth.
During this time, the so-called 'golden demographic period' arrived, when the working-age population aged 15 to 64 surpassed 70% of the total population. Based on a rich labor force, Vietnam achieved an average annual growth of 6.25% between 2000 and 2024.
However, the sweet times did not last long. Vietnam encountered the rocky shore of a rapid decline in birth rates.
According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Vietnam has already entered an aging society. An aging society is defined as a situation where more than 7% of the total population is aged 65 or older.
If the current trend continues, Vietnam's working-age population will peak in 2042, 17 years from now. Starting in 2054, the overall population will begin to decline.
UNFPA predicted that it would take Vietnam only 20 years to transition from an aging society to an 'aged society,' where the population aged 65 and older exceeds 14%. This means experiencing changes that developed countries have gone through over several decades in a rapid and compressed manner.
WP cited a World Bank (WB) expert stating, 'Continued low birth rates lead to labor shortages and a surge in social security costs,' and added, 'This could be a serious obstacle to Vietnam's goal of entering high-income status by 2045.'
According to the Vietnamese Ministry of Health, last year, Vietnam's total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime) recorded a historic low of 1.91. This is far below the replacement level of 2.1 children.
In economic centers where young populations congregate, the low birth rate situation is even more serious. The Vietnamese media VN Express reported that 'in the largest economic city, Ho Chi Minh City, the total fertility rate has plummeted to 1.39 children.'
Statistics from the General Department of Vietnam show a clear trend of women delaying or giving up marriage and childbirth. The average age of women at first marriage jumped from 22 in the early 2000s to 25 last year. As economic growth increases, more women are entering the workforce, and the level of education is also rising, leading to a later age for their first child.
Vietnam shares a Confucian cultural sphere similar to Korea. There are high expectations projected onto children, and the fervor for education is intense. The rapidly rising costs of child-rearing and education, along with high housing prices, impose a significant burden on the younger generation of Vietnam who wish to raise children.
WP analyzed that 'Vietnamese youth hesitate to give birth amidst economic pressure and the pursuit of better quality of life.'
The Vietnamese government has been striving to boost birth rates even before the abolition of the two-child policy. The communist government has introduced several policies that can be considered radical.
In Ho Chi Minh City, starting last December, women who give birth to two children before the age of 35 will be eligible for a birth incentive of about $120 (approximately 3 million dong). This amount corresponds to a third of the local average monthly salary (about $300 to $400).
According to The Guardian, the Vietnamese government provides family support benefits at the highest level in Southeast Asia, including guaranteed full paid parental leave for six months, free medical services for children under the age of 6, and free education until the age of 15.
Simultaneously, the government has taken strong measures against elements that hinder normal childbirth. VN Express reported that the Vietnamese government has recently raised the penalty for abortions based on fetal sex from the previous amount to three times more, totaling 9.5 million dong (approximately 5 million won). This is a significant sum equivalent to the average annual salary of Vietnamese workers. The current sex ratio at birth in Vietnam is seriously skewed at 112 boys for every 100 girls.