In the 21st presidential election held on the 3rd, Lee Jae-myung, the candidate from the Democratic Party of Korea, was elected, prompting foreign media to comment that the political turmoil in Korea that lasted for six months has reached a conclusion. While foreign media expected this elected official, who described himself as 'centrist conservative', to choose pragmatism in foreign policy, there were concerns that he might encounter friction with the Donald Trump administration, which seeks to contain China.
Bloomberg reported that 'this election is expected to bring a turning point to Korea, which has experienced six months of turmoil since the imposition of martial law,' noting that 'the fact that it is not the overwhelming victory he desired shows that strong opposition to this elected official still exists; however, with a majority in Congress, there is the possibility of pursuing more policies than former President Yoon Seok-yeol.'
Foreign media projected changes in Korea's diplomatic relations following this elected official's inauguration. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) stated, 'This elected official promised to carry on some of former President Yoon's foreign policies, expanding the alliance with the United States, cooperating with Japan, and addressing North Korean human rights issues.' However, they also reported that 'the elected official, who once likened himself to 'Bernie Sanders', believes that Korea's relationship with the United States should not exclude relationships with China or Russia.'
The New York Times (NYT) also predicted that 'this elected official is expected to take a different approach from former President Yoon,' adding, 'He will maintain a strong military alliance with the United States while striving to restore strained relations with China and North Korea. He also pointed out that former President Yoon was excessively 'submissive' to Japan and too 'hostile' towards China.'
There was a prevailing forecast that changes in Korea's foreign policy would not occur rapidly due to this elected official's tendencies. The Washington Post (WP) stated that 'this elected official is assessed to be much less ideological in foreign policy compared to former Democratic presidents,' explaining that 'previous Democratic presidents advocated for unification of the Korean Peninsula and consistently pursued pro-North Korea policies at the expense of relations between Seoul and Washington, but this elected official is not of that type.'
Furthermore, it was noted that 'he refers to himself as a foreign policy “pragmatist” driven by Korea's national interests,' with experts analyzing that this implies he might be less predictable and may be more actively cooperative with Washington. Although predicting this elected official's foreign policy is challenging, given that it differs from his predecessors, there is hope that he may be more proactive in collaborating with the United States.
CNN stated that 'a reassessment of Korea's foreign policy is approaching,' reporting that this elected official pledged to rebuild trust with the United States, which has weakened during the martial law crisis. Celest Arrington, a Korean studies researcher at George Washington University, told CNN that 'this elected official views the Korea-U.S. alliance as the cornerstone of Korea's national security,' and added, 'During the campaign, he did not use anti-Japanese sentiments like previous progressive candidates. It appears he hopes to maintain relations with Japan and trilateral relations among Korea, the U.S., and Japan, which would be positive for both U.S. interests and Korea's national security.'
However, foreign media did not rule out the possibility of deteriorating relations between Korea and the United States. The WSJ noted, 'This elected official's desire for a more balanced relationship between the United States and China could complicate President Donald Trump's efforts to persuade allies to contain China in trade and security matters.' An editorial stated, 'The Korea-U.S. relationship could become somewhat tense. This elected official claims to support the Korea-U.S. alliance but also wants a good relationship with major trading partner China.'
Additionally, citing Dalcy Draut Beharis, a Korean studies fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, it was projected that 'under Lee Jae-myung's administration, Korea may retaliate against various policies from President Trump.' Beharis noted to the WSJ that 'the relationship between the two countries could deteriorate quite rapidly,' citing reasons that the Lee Jae-myung administration may not fully comply with U.S. demands regarding the cost-sharing for U.S. troops stationed in Korea, reducing non-tariff trade barriers, and relations concerning North Korea.
The WP also stated that 'the Trump administration has taken an increasingly hardline stance against China, urging allies to respond similarly,' adding that 'such movements could put this elected official in a difficult position as he seeks balance between the two superpowers.'