Since the inauguration of Donald Trump's administration, the United States has significantly reduced foreign aid programs, allowing armed groups to thrive in Africa. On the 27th (local time), The Washington Post (WP) reported that "al-Shabaab is advancing into Somalia," noting that "this armed group has recaptured major cities from the Somali military over the past three months."
Al-Shabaab is an armed group linked to the international terrorist organization al-Qaeda, well-known for its attack on a U.S. military base in Kenya in 2020. On the 18th, a suicide bombing targeting young New Recruits waiting to register at a military recruiting station occurred in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, which is also believed to be the work of al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab was also behind a similar attack at the Mogadishu Military Academy in July 2023.
The expansion of al-Shabaab's influence has been made possible by the reduction of U.S. support for Somalia. The special forces known as the "Danab Brigade" have been fighting al-Shabaab with U.S. assistance. However, the Trump administration has recently reconsidered not only withdrawing support for Somali special forces but also the planned deployment of hundreds of U.S. troops nationwide.
During his first term, President Trump also ordered the majority of U.S. troops to withdraw from Somalia, telling them to commute from neighboring countries. At that time, U.S. troops had been stationed in Somalia for 13 years to fight against al-Shabaab, which is linked to the extremist terrorist organization al-Qaeda. Since then, U.S. troops have returned to Somalia.
Most foreign instructors have withdrawn following cuts in security assistance, and the morale of local soldiers is reportedly declining, WP noted. WP pointed out, "It is unclear whether under Trump's second administration, the U.S. still considers the fight against al-Shabaab a priority, or whether the long-corrupted Somali government has the capacity to lead the fight."
The United States has supported Somalia's seven key security partners, including the United Kingdom, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the African Union (AU). Although these organizations' interests sometimes conflict, they all share a common goal of deterring al-Shabaab. If the United States completely withdraws from Somalia, the African security network that has been containing al-Shabaab will inevitably collapse.
Former senior officials at the State Department are concerned that the reduction of U.S. influence in Somalia could help al-Shabaab expand its power to neighboring Kenya and Ethiopia. There are also forecasts that the close ties between al-Shabaab and Yemen's Houthi rebels could accelerate. A former State Department official cited U.S. intelligence, stating that al-Shabaab and the Houthi rebels recently held two meetings, and that afterward, the Houthi rebels sent explosives experts to al-Shabaab's base in Jilib.
The Somali government, which has relied on U.S. support, is increasing its dependence on Turkey to combat armed groups. Turkey has recently deployed armed drones and hundreds of soldiers to Somalia and is also conducting oil exploration. WP assessed that while Turkey is strengthening its foothold in Somalia, known as the "Horn of Africa," Somalia is securing another security partner against U.S. unpredictability.
Some voices suggest that the reduction of U.S. foreign aid could actually pose a threat to the U.S. Matt Bryden, founder of the think tank Sahan, based in Nairobi, Kenya, stated, "It seems that the Trump administration is not convinced that al-Shabaab poses a direct threat to U.S. interests," adding, "The expansion of al-Shabaab's influence will have widespread implications for U.S. policy across much of Africa and the Middle East."