The consumer sentiment in the United States, which had worsened due to uncertainties in tariff policy and concerns about economic recession, showed significant improvement in May.
On the 27th (local time), the U.S. economic research organization Conference Board announced that the consumer confidence index for May was 98.0 (1985=100), up 12.3 points from April (85.7). It also significantly exceeded the Dow Jones estimate (86.0).
The Conference Board explained that the agreement between the U.S. and China on a 90-day ceasefire in the tariff war on the 12th had an impact on the improvement in consumer confidence.
The expectations index, which reflects consumers' short-term outlook on income, business, and the labor market, rose to 72.8, increasing 17.4 points from the previous month. The expectations index had recorded its lowest level in over 13 years in April 2011.
Stephanie Ghysar, senior economist at the Conference Board, noted, "The rebound in consumer confidence was somewhat visible before the U.S.-China trade agreement on May 12, but the rebound accelerated further after the agreement."
The consumer confidence index by the Conference Board had continued to decline for five consecutive months from December of last year to April. Uncertainties surrounding the tariff policy of the Trump administration had lowered consumer confidence due to the perception that it would adversely affect the economy. The rebound in the consumer confidence index in May is interpreted as a relief from tariff-related concerns that had pressured consumer economic sentiment.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is categorized as a soft economic indicator based on surveys, distinguished from hard indicators based on actual economic activities such as employment, consumption, and investment. However, it is considered a leading indicator of the real economy in that it reflects the sentiment of economic entities.