The small South American nation of Suriname has plunged into political uncertainty ahead of large-scale oil development. In the recent general election, the ruling party and opposition recorded essentially a tie, indicating that coalition negotiations surrounding the presidential election are likely to continue for the coming weeks. During this process, there are expectations that political confusion and uncertainty will be unavoidable.
According to Bloomberg News, the official results of the Suriname general election announced on the 25th (local time) showed that the opposition National Democratic Party (NDP) secured 18 seats, while the ruling Progressive Reform Party (VHP) obtained 17 seats. Suriname elects its president through an indirect parliamentary election, where a party must secure more than two-thirds, or 34 out of 51 seats, to elect the president. However, both parties have failed to secure a majority, making the formation of a coalition government and political negotiations inevitable, raising concerns that key policies may be delayed or foreign investment sentiment could falter.
This general election is notable particularly because it was held just before Suriname begins actual oil field development. Furthermore, the conservative VHP candidate Chandrikapersad Santokhi and the progressive NDP candidate Jennifer Herlings-Simons are presenting diverging approaches regarding the use of oil revenue.
Candidate Santokhi is focusing on 'economic recovery.' As the current president, he is credited with putting the national finances back on track by pushing market-friendly reforms such as restructuring negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and reducing fuel subsidies. During his term, foreign investment attraction expanded, and cooperation with Western and Chinese oil corporations was actively pursued. However, the intense austerity measures prompted backlash from the lower-income population, which analysts suggest has contributed to a decrease in the VHP's seat count.
In contrast, candidate Simons has stated that she will prioritize the use of oil revenue for expanding social welfare and nurturing domestic industries. She plans to proceed with contracts with multinational oil corporations while maintaining a cautious stance that puts the nation's interests first. This approach is interpreted as a reflection of domestic public opinion advocating for clearer revenue distribution surrounding oil development and stricter controls over foreign corporations.
Suriname is expected to commence its first oil production in 2028 at the 'Block 58' oil field, developed by French energy company TotalEnergies SE. The reservoir of this oil field is estimated to be about 760 million barrels, comparable to South Korea's annual oil import volume. TotalEnergies has announced plans to increase daily production to 200,000 barrels within the next decade, which is being regarded as a potential turning point that could change the course of Suriname's economy.
Thus, this general election is assessed as a critical juncture, not merely a transfer of power, impacting which developmental path Suriname will choose going forward. However, Bloomberg has emphasized that if Suriname becomes excessively dependent on oil revenue, it may fall into a 'resource curse' that could hinder long-term growth.