“China's goal is to dominate all of Asia starting with Taiwan. In fact, the worst-case scenario is for China to invade Taiwan, and in the midst of that, North Korea begins a war on the Korean Peninsula, leading to a 'third world war.' The Trump administration is taking the extreme measure of tariffs to prevent this.”
On the 21st, Jason Schenker emphasized this during a video meeting. He is recognized as the world's number one futurist by Bloomberg News. He is the head of the economic research firm Prestige Economics and the futurist forecasting agency The Futurist Institute, and a bestselling author with 36 books published across various fields including economics, finance, and technology.
The response to the new book 'Cold War 2' is also hot. Immediately after its release, it soared to the top of the macroeconomics category on Amazon in the U.S., and as of the 23rd, it ranked 9th in the overall category on Naver Books and 1st on the KyoBo Bookstore's business and economics weekly bestseller list, showing strong sales.
The book declares the opening of the 'second cold war' and examines the causes, aspects, and future impacts of the new cold war across three parts. According to Schenker, the cold war is a conflict not just between capitalism and communism, or between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, but between China and anti-China forces. It is a global resistance aimed at suppressing China, which seeks to dominate Asia's economic, military, and political hegemony.
However, the battleground of this cold war will no longer be divided solely by military intervention. Various national capacities such as resource control, information dominance, and trade security will determine the outcome, and the nature of the conflicts is expected to become more complex, including proxy wars and cyber warfare.
In an interview with ChosunBiz, Jason Schenker reiterated that “only nations and corporations that successfully restructure their trade networks and quickly secure alternative supply chains will survive in this restructured order.” Here is the Q&A with Jason Schenker.
─In his book, he argued that for the United States to maintain strategic superiority, it must strengthen economic self-sufficiency, gain a technological edge, and prepare for informational warfare. Evaluating the actions of the Trump administration to date.
“It is still early in the administration to make a full evaluation, but the direction is clear. The Trump administration is focusing on exerting high pressure on China while trying to regain America’s technological prowess and industrial sovereignty. The tariff and supply chain restructuring strategies that began during the first administration have been maintained under the Biden administration and are currently being accelerated in the second term. In particular, with the increased likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the U.S. is actively using not only military deterrence but also economic measures to curb China's expansion. Trump is an outcome-focused individual who prioritizes results over procedures. He is adopting a strategy that seeks to secure practical deterrent effects, even at the cost of incurring allies' complaints. The ultimate goal of this administration is to prevent the worst-case scenario of a 'third world war' that could arise from China's actions, even if it means taking on the role of the 'bad guy.'”
─He also mentioned that the U.S. should focus on strengthening its global alliances. However, it seems that the U.S. is prioritizing its own interests even among allied countries by imposing reciprocal tariffs. Ultimately, is Trump not acting in the opposite direction?
“On the surface, it may seem as if the alliances are being shaken, but in reality, it is a strategy aimed at encouraging allied countries to no longer depend on China. The Trump administration is using tariffs as leverage in negotiations to achieve practical cooperation with its allies. For example, the U.S. does not intend to gain economic benefits from threatening tariffs on Canada or Mexico. Instead, it aims to take strong action to prevent allied countries from circumventing imports of Chinese products and thereby reduce their dependence on China. The U.S. has pursued this through gentlemanly and diplomatic means, but there have been no results, which is why it has resorted to stronger measures. Demands for increased defense cost-sharing and weapon purchases from NATO countries are also interpreted as measures aimed at enhancing their autonomous defense capabilities. In other words, it is possible to interpret that the alliances are being restructured in a direction that strengthens the shared goal of 'containing China,' even at the cost of uncomfortable procedures.”
─Are the tariffs aimed at China effective? It looks like the U.S. has taken a step back in negotiations with China. Is the tariff policy failing?
“The recent tariff suspension is not a retreat but a 'strategic pause.' The recent 90-day suspension of tariffs by the U.S. should be viewed as a strategy to create a practical opportunity for dialogue. In the process of getting to this point, the U.S. has clearly conveyed the message to China that 'it can strengthen tariffs at any time' and has ultimately succeeded in bringing China to the negotiation table.
The economic pressures demonstrated by the Trump administration are not simply a trade issue. They are a deterrent measure to prevent China's takeover of Taiwan. In reality, the U.S. sees tariffs as an 'economic live fire drill.' In the same context as military training, it aims to reveal how strongly the U.S. can pressure China to deter its invasion intentions. Trump maintains the attitude of ‘war should be avoided, but I will accept whatever pressure is necessary to prevent it.’
─Which country is likely to benefit the most from the U.S.-China trade war?
“First of all, India is likely to be the biggest beneficiary. India has a large population and low labor costs, emerging as a low-cost manufacturing base to replace China. In fact, U.S. foreign direct investment is rapidly shifting from China to India.
However, in terms of the information and communications technology (ICT) industry, Korea is at a distinct advantage. Major corporations such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and LG continue to make large-scale investments in areas like Texas, and they are recognized as America's 'advanced technology partners.' Japan may also benefit in some industries, but Korea is particularly flexible in responding to market changes, thanks to its export-driven structure. The UAE is also worth mentioning; it is being highlighted as a global investment destination, taking on the role of a 'mediator' based on its geopolitical neutrality and logistics hub function. However, the center of the 'alliance block' emphasized by Trump is definitely the trilateral partnership between Korea, the U.S., and Japan.
─Another point highlighted in his book is the possibility of war in Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula. Is there a significant likelihood of war breaking out? How might this unfold?
“There is a real possibility of conflict in both regions. In particular, if China invades Taiwan, the likelihood of provocations from North Korea also increases. This is because North Korea may take advantage of the situation when U.S. intervention becomes inevitable. Notably, 2027 has been identified as a critical year with a high probability of China's invasion of Taiwan. China aims to complete its military modernization by 2027, and the U.S. is also operating preparation scenarios based on this timeframe.
In contrast, Korea has secured relatively strong deterrence thanks to the U.S. forces in Korea and its own defense capabilities, which lowers the probability of war. The status of Korea's ICT industry also acts as a kind of strategic asset. However, since China is already increasing activities in the waters near Jeju Island and escalating pressure, Korea also needs to maintain a high level of security tension.
─Despite the increasing geopolitical tensions, the U.S. financial system remains a preferred global investment destination, and this trend is expected to continue even after the second cold war. However, recently, Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has shaken trust in U.S. safe assets. Is the attractiveness of the U.S. market still valid?
“Moody's downgrade is not surprising. Fitch and S&P had already taken preemptive downgrade actions, and this has already been reflected in the market. The U.S. market's attractiveness remains valid. The U.S. is still the world's largest economy, possessing a robust consumer market, deep-rooted capital markets, high regulatory trust, and strong military power.
However, what is important from an investor's perspective is 'what to invest in.' Depending on whether to invest in U.S. corporations or U.S. dollars, the currency risk varies. If a Korean investor holds U.S. stocks while the dollar value plunges, the real return may decrease. In such cases, it might be better to invest in U.S. corporations while purchasing won-based ETFs. In other words, considerations of whether to hedge against currency risk should be part of the investment portfolio. Nevertheless, the fact that the U.S. remains the most stable and attractive investment destination remains unchanged.”
─Korea is about to hold a presidential election. The candidates are already flooding their promises regarding solutions for low birth rates and nurturing AI. What should be the key focus of the next Korean government?
“First and foremost, isn't security the most urgent concern? Sure, resolving the low birth rate and AI strategies are important, but if the threats from China and North Korea materialize, all these plans will be rendered ineffective. Korea is already a country with 'superior' influence in the ICT field. Maintaining and enhancing competitiveness while managing security risks should be the core strategy.
Advanced technology and an export-driven industrial structure are key assets for capital inflow and maintaining the national brand. However, geopolitical risks can shake that foundation at any moment. Trump has emphasized multiple times that Korea is already a key ally in terms of 'economic security,' and in order to maintain this status, Korea must also enhance its technological capabilities alongside its diplomatic and military response capabilities.