CNN reported on the 20th (local time) that there are indications Israel has begun preparations to independently strike Iran's nuclear facilities. The U.S. government is said to have acquired this information through eavesdropping on Israeli military communications.
Israel has reportedly completed the movement of weapons and air force training for an attack on nuclear facilities. However, some analysts suggest that this may be psychological pressure on Iran rather than an imminent attack. It remains unconfirmed whether the Israeli government has made a final decision.
Within the U.S. government, analyses regarding the possibility of Israeli military action are mixed. Internally, there are concerns that if the Trump administration concludes nuclear negotiations without sufficiently limiting Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities, Israel may launch a preemptive strike to derail the negotiations.
Israel has established plans to strike Iran's nuclear facilities since the past and has continued airstrike training. Last year, it bombed military bases and missile production facilities on the outskirts of Tehran, causing significant damage to Iran's air defense network. Israel has also secured access routes through the Syrian airspace by bombing military facilities there.
Iran-linked armed groups, including the Lebanese militant group Hamas, have also suffered from successive airstrikes, and CNN reports that Iran's military capabilities have been unprecedentedly weakened due to economic sanctions and military pressure.
However, direct airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities could trigger a full-scale conflict in the Middle East, prompting a sensitive response from the U.S. government. The Trump administration has also reportedly dispatched the commander of U.S. Central Command to Israel to request a cautious response.
If an attack on nuclear facilities materializes, it could significantly impact the global economy, including a surge in international oil prices. In fact, shortly after CNN's report, international oil prices rose by more than 3% at one point.
The U.S. is reportedly strengthening information gathering in preparation for the possibility of Israel conducting airstrikes. However, there is also an official position that military support would be difficult unless there is a significant provocation from Iran.
To destroy Iran's deeply buried nuclear facilities, extensive military support from the U.S., such as bunker busters and aerial refueling, is needed. Observers suggest that Israel's final decision may also change depending on U.S. actions.
The U.S. and Iran have engaged in four negotiations since last month, mediated by Oman, but have not managed to narrow differences regarding Iran's uranium enrichment program. After the Trump administration withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA) in 2018 and restored sanctions, Iran raised its uranium enrichment level to 60%.