The world's third-largest economy, Japan, is in turmoil over rice. Public sentiment has turned cold due to rice prices nearly doubling in just a year. The warning that 'touching rice will bring down the government' is on the verge of becoming reality.
On the 19th, Reuters quoted a Kyodo News opinion poll that revealed the approval rating of the cabinet led by Shinzo Abe has plummeted to 27.4%. This is the lowest since its inception. It has fallen by 5.2 percentage points from 32.6% last month.
Among the poll respondents, 87.1% criticized the government's measures regarding the rise in rice prices as 'insufficient.'
According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications' retail price statistics survey, as of April this year, the nationwide average price of rice (based on 5 kg) has surged over 20% compared to the same month last year. In some regions and varieties, prices have almost doubled.
CNN reported that 'a 60 kg bag of rice has risen 55% compared to the same period last year, exceeding $160 (about 230,000 won).' According to Japanese media, this is the most drastic price fluctuation since the 'Heisei Rice Incident' in 1993, when Japan suffered from severe rice shortages due to a cold snap.
In the Japanese food industry, the prevailing analysis is that the issue is not a temporary crop failure but a structural problem that has festered in the Japanese rice market.
Experts have identified the monopolistic distribution structure of the Japan Agricultural Cooperatives, also known as 'NongHyup,' as a key cause of this price fluctuation.
The JA Group controls about 80% of fertilizer sales and over 50% of rice distribution in Japan. Since the days when the government controlled rice prices, JA has consistently raised rice purchase prices every year under the rationale of protecting producers. This increase has been entirely passed on to consumer prices.
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun pointed out that 'the rigid rice distribution system led by JA has exacerbated price volatility in a supply shortage situation.'
The Japanese government's 'rice production adjustment policy (reduction policy),' which has been in place for nearly 60 years, has boomeranged. Since the 1970s, the government has adhered to a policy of reducing production to prevent oversupply and price drops. To artificially regulate supply, it even provided incentives to plant other crops in rice paddies.
The Washington Post noted, citing experts, that 'due to the Japanese government's overly rigid matching of rice demand and supply, even small external shocks like unusual weather can destabilize the entire system.'
The Japanese government has belatedly taken measures to address the situation. In March, it decided to release approximately 230,000 tons of government stockpiled rice.
Recently, the Japanese government has lowered the import barriers for foreign rice, which had been extremely limited due to quality issues. Last month, Korean rice, which had been exported to Japan for the first time in 35 years, was sold out immediately after its export.
Japanese tourists visiting countries like Korea are creating an absurd scene of purchasing rice at local supermarkets and returning to Japan.
According to the Asahi Shimbun, the average age of Japanese farmers has already exceeded 60. While they can still farm, the area of farmland abandoned is also increasing each year. Additionally, climate change has made crop instability a common trend. Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries warned that rice harvests could decrease by as much as 20% by 2100 compared to current levels.
In the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, ahead of the House of Councilors election this July, there is a growing sense of crisis that 'if the rice issue is not resolved, the very existence of the government could be jeopardized.'
CNN quoted experts who said, 'Japanese rice, protected by a high tariff of 778%, is a typical example of protectionist policy,' and emphasized that 'the closed distribution structure centered around JA increases supply rigidity, leading to price fluctuations.'