As tensions escalate between India and Pakistan, attention is focused on the causes of the conflict between the two countries.
On July 7 (local time), Bloomberg reported that India carried out precision strikes on terrorist camps within Pakistan following an attack on tourists last month in Indian-administered Kashmir. In response, Pakistan announced that it shot down five Indian aircraft, claiming civilian casualties.
Bloomberg analyzed that the conflict between the two countries began shortly after they gained independence from Britain in 1947. After being separated into Hindu-majority India and Islamic-majority Pakistan against a backdrop of religious division, the two nations have fought three wars and experienced multiple localized clashes over the sovereignty of the Kashmir region. India has strengthened its control over the area, while Pakistan has maintained a contrasting position, defining armed groups as liberation fighters.
This clash is considered the most intense standoff since India withdrew the constitutional special status granted to Kashmir in 2019 and deployed a large military presence. At that time, India revoked Article 370 of the Constitution, stripping Kashmir of its autonomy, which allowed India to strengthen its control and expand its military presence in the region.
Regarding this military operation, the Indian government claimed that it precisely targeted only terrorist organizations on Pakistani territory and did not aim at civilian facilities or military bases. In contrast, Pakistan characterized the airstrikes as a clear act of invasion, not simply retaliation, stating that dozens of its civilians had died and indicating the possibility of military response.
The diplomatic backlash is also severe. India downgraded its diplomatic relations with Pakistan, and Pakistan has fully prohibited Indian aircraft from transiting its airspace. With border trade between the two nations effectively halted, economic repercussions are becoming a reality. India is a key exporter to Pakistan, and this action is expected to significantly impact trade between the two countries.
The tension is also spreading to concerns about a water war. India recently unilaterally suspended the Indus River Treaty, which was mediated by the World Bank in 1960, and it is reported that the flow of water into northern Pakistan has decreased by about 90%. Pakistan, which heavily relies on agriculture, considers this a threat to its survival and is examining legal responses under international law.
The military operation has also heightened tensions symbolically. The retaliatory military operation conducted by India has been named Operation 'Sindoor.' Sindoor is a red powder that married women in Hinduism apply to their hair, symbolizing life and connection. The Indian government stated that this operation carries a warning message to Pakistan, beyond mere retaliation. Reports indicate that there was significant civilian harm, including men being shot while families watched.
Pakistan has officially delegated authority to respond to the military. If the clashes escalate, given that both countries possess nuclear weapons, there are concerns that a localized conflict could escalate into a large-scale war. Neighboring countries and the international community are urging diplomatic solutions to prevent the situation from escalating.