The province of Alberta, which ranks first in oil production among resource-rich Canada, has officially confirmed the possibility of holding a referendum on independence next year.
On the 6th (local time), according to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said, “If the federal government stifles the oil and gas industry or imposes unrealistic targets on the power grid, there will be no choice but to invoke the Sovereignty Act or hold a referendum on independence.”
Smith’s comments came at a time when expectations for national unity were rising with the inauguration of newly appointed Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Alberta is the largest oil and gas producing region in Canada, accounting for 80% of the total crude oil production. This is also the reason for its discord with the newly formed federal government.
Alberta argues that the federal government’s green policies and carbon tax are pressuring the local economy.
The government report from Alberta stated that, “Due to the federal carbon tax, Alberta’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could decline by up to 2.1% by 2030.”
Premier Smith criticized this by stating, “The federal government is taking for granted Alberta’s economic contributions while shackling it with unfair regulations.”
The Globe and Mail, a Canadian publication, analyzed that “Alberta accounts for 15% of Canada’s total GDP, but its population is only 11%, indicating a very high per capita economic contribution.”
Canada is a federal country with strong autonomy of state governments. Unlike centralized European countries, elements of decentralization are still embedded in the constitution.
Canada’s national broadcaster CBC quoted Michael McLachlin, a constitutional law professor at the University of Toronto, as saying, “The emergence of Prime Minister Carney does not necessarily signify the unity of all of Canada, as this case shows,” noting that “there is a continuous tension between national unity and separation.”
In Eastern Canada, the province of Quebec, which has a strong French influence, has shown a consistent movement for independence since its founding. In the 1995 referendum on Quebec’s independence, support reached nearly half at 49.42%.
There are growing concerns within Canada that if the province of Alberta, which has significant stakes in oil production and the economy, turns its back on the federal government, it could cause even greater shocks to national identity and budget than Quebec.
Canadian political analyst IAAN Lee emphasized in a CTV interview that “the top priority for Prime Minister Carney’s cabinet is to address the feelings of alienation in Western Canada and implement substantial integration policies.”
The possibility of Alberta’s independence surged sharply after the previous administration of Justin Trudeau announced a new climate change policy.
In 2023, Prime Minister Trudeau revealed plans to phase out coal and gas generation in Canada by 2035 and transition all new vehicles to 100% zero-emission vehicles.
Alberta, with a high percentage of its economy reliant on oil-related industries, strongly opposed this policy, claiming it is “unrealistic and would collapse the provincial economy.”
According to economic analysis from the Fraser Institute, Alberta could face economic losses of up to CAD 2.1 billion (approximately 2.1 trillion won) due to the expenditures from the federal carbon tax.
As a result, deeply rooted sentiments of ‘Western Alienation’ have emerged in Western Canada, suggesting that the federal government represents the interests of Eastern regions such as Ontario and Quebec.
The independence card is also used as a political negotiating tool to secure more autonomy or budget from the federal government. Quebec has secured significant autonomy from the federal government through several independence referendums.
Alberta is also making attempts to secure the right to refuse the application of federal laws by passing the ‘Alberta Sovereignty Act’ following Premier Smith’s election.
A recent Angus Reid Institute poll indicated that about 25% of Alberta residents expressed support for independence.
The Globe and Mail analyzed that “the sense of alienation felt by the West goes beyond mere emotional issues and serves as a key driving force for political action.”
Reactions from the federal government and other regions have been negative. Federal Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland firmly opposed independence, stating immediately after Premier Smith’s remarks that “Canada is stronger together.”
Legally, Alberta has a long way to go to succeed in independence. According to a 1998 Supreme Court of Canada ruling, no province can unilaterally decide to become independent. To achieve independence, it requires support from a ‘clear majority’ and constitutional negotiations with the federal government and other provinces.
WSJ noted that “provinces that heavily rely on specific industries have historically reacted sensitively to federal government policies,” suggesting that amid the changing political landscape in North America with Trump’s re-election, Alberta’s independence movement could become the first domestic political crisis that the Carney government faces.