On the 6th (local time), Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), was narrowly elected as the next Chancellor of Germany after a second ballot. As the first newly elected chancellor since World War II to fail to secure a majority in the first-round parliamentary vote, Merz carries the 'disgrace' of this outcome, leading major foreign media to assess that his path in addressing Germany's challenges will not be smooth.
In the second confidence vote held in the Bundestag that day, Merz was elected chancellor after receiving 325 of the total 640 votes. In the previous first round of voting, Merz fell short of a majority (316 votes) by 6 votes, garnering only 310 votes, which resulted in the failure of his election. This is interpreted to reflect that Merz did not receive full support from within the CDU he leads or that there were some defections from the Social Democratic Party of Korea (SPD), which promised to form a coalition government with the CDU.
Concerns have been raised that Merz, who did not reach the coalition's seat count (328 seats) in the second vote, may face weakened governing power in the new government. Bloomberg reported, 'Before the government is even formed, fractures in Germany's coalition have become apparent,' adding that 'this clearly illustrates how arduous the challenges Merz will face going forward will be.'
Merz currently faces several challenges. First, he must revive the German economy, which is on the brink of collapse. Germany's annual economic growth rate has recorded -0.3% in 2023 and -0.2% last year, marking two consecutive years of decline. This is the first time since 2002-2003 that such a contraction has occurred in 21 years. Growth is also expected to be stagnant at 0.0% this year, effectively halting economic growth. The Financial Times (FT) noted, 'In a time of economic upheaval, Merz has the mission to reform Europe’s largest economy.'
The outlook for whether the German economy can regain vitality is not bright. Germany, as a manufacturing country centered around the automotive industry, faces sharp rises in energy prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war and is lagging behind in competition with China. With the added pressure of tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration, the export-dependent German manufacturing sector is expected to take a significant hit. Although tariffs against the European Union (EU), including Germany, have been suspended, a high tariff of 25% on imported vehicles remains in place.
Concerns surrounding Germany's security are also growing. President Trump, who perceives that Europe is free-riding on security, is strongly demanding that European nations increase their defense expenditure. The New York Times (NYT) reported, 'As President Trump threatens to undermine the U.S. defense umbrella over Europe, the relationship between Germany and the U.S., formerly the most important ally since World War II, is becoming complicated.' Since the unification in 1990, Germany has maintained its defense expenditure at around 1% of GDP for over 30 years and has shown a passive attitude toward strengthening its defense.
However, Merz also prioritizes strengthening defense. In March, he reached a parliamentary agreement on measures to exempt defense expenditure borrowing limits stipulated in the constitution. Merz stated, 'The most important thing is to ensure that we remain a free and peaceful country even 10 years from now,' noting that 'as our freedom and peace are under threat, protecting our freedom and safeguarding peace will be our foremost task.'
Intensifying domestic backlash against immigrants who have entered Germany in recent years is also one of the issues Merz must address. NYT stated, 'The new chancellor will need to take decisive action to alleviate the concerns of the German people regarding immigrants who have been migrating to Germany from the Middle East, Africa, and other regions for over a decade,' adding that 'these concerns have heightened due to a series of fatal attacks committed by some immigrants.' The rise of the far-right party 'Alternative for Germany' (AfD), which stirs anti-immigration sentiment, is also something Merz must consider.
Merz, who was barely elected as chancellor, must also stabilize the chaotic political situation. Bloomberg noted, 'Merz's coalition government has struggled to maintain voter support since winning the election in February, while the far-right AfD has been gaining ground in the formerly communist eastern regions.' The NYT reported that the weakening of the coalition may hinder Merz's ability to solidify his position on the global stage and pass important legislation to advance his agenda. Merz is set to hold his first cabinet meeting on the night of the 7th, marking the official start of his chancellorship.
Catherine Clüver Ashbrook, vice president of the Bertelsmann Foundation, noted, 'The delay in Merz's election suggests that difficult times are ahead.' Ashbrook emphasized, 'Germany and Europe must play the role of an anchor of stability amidst an unstable international situation,' while also stating, 'Trust among voters in elite policymakers has already diminished, and internal divisions within the government at this point are very detrimental.'