President Donald Trump has abruptly replaced the White House National Security Advisor. He has dismissed National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, who has been advocating for active foreign intervention within the White House against Trump's isolationist tendencies, and appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a loyalist who faithfully follows Trump’s intentions, to also serve as national security adviser. This has raised speculation that a foreign policy faithful to Trump's instincts may be more likely, leading to an assessment of increased unpredictability in U.S. foreign policy.
On the 2nd (local time), the U.S. daily Wall Street Journal (WSJ) predicted, "While removing Waltz would make it easier for President Trump to act on instincts, achieving victories in foreign policy will not be easy." The day before, President Trump had nominated former National Security Adviser Waltz as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and instructed Secretary of State Rubio to temporarily also take on the role of national security adviser.
Currently, the most influential aide to President Trump on diplomatic and security issues is Steve Witkoff, a Middle East envoy who is neither a Cabinet member nor part of the official White House structure. Witkoff, a long-time golf friend of President Trump, has become a key figure in U.S. diplomacy, gaining Trump’s absolute trust while actively engaging in various issues, from the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza to the Ukraine war and Iran nuclear negotiations.
The 'Make America Great Again' (MAGA) policy, which advocates for America first, is also mentioned as a significant force influencing the Trump administration's foreign policy. In particular, far-right influencer Laura Loomer, who adheres to MAGA, is having a considerable impact on foreign and security personnel in the Trump administration.
There are also suggestions that Minister Rubio may lead foreign policy. He is regarded as a loyalist who accurately reads and follows President Trump’s intentions. After being appointed, he has demonstrated strong loyalty to Trump by withdrawing his previous strong support for Ukraine and advocating for the deportation policy of illegal immigrants, despite being from an immigrant family himself.
According to the political media Politico, a senior official noted that the role of Minister Rubio as a 'multiplayer' is seen as more than a short-term solution, emphasizing, "This is not a makeshift measure." It is especially expected that Minister Rubio will focus on building the overall organization of the Trump administration's foreign policy while simultaneously serving as national security adviser for at least six months.
Along with the diplomatic line filled with loyalists, external forces like MAGA are exerting considerable influence, leading to evaluations that U.S. foreign and security policy is currently structured in a very strong 'top-down' system centered around President Trump. Richard Haas, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), indicated that the Trump second administration is "the most top-down government in recent times," noting that aides are unable to exert leadership.
Moreover, it has been reported that fierce competition among various factions, including neocons and MAGA supporters, is taking place over the position of national security adviser, which Minister Rubio will hold temporarily until a successor is appointed. The Wall Street Journal reported, "MAGA supporters, who are skeptical of allies and actively seeking to improve relations with Putin, are engaged in a power struggle with forces supporting traditional Republican policies."