Concerns have been raised that, amid China strengthening its hardline diplomacy against the United States and neighboring countries, signs of a rift between the military and political factions within are becoming increasingly evident. As the power base of the Xi Jinping regime weakens, it appears to be expressing aggression externally, which may be a typical sign of regime termination.
According to Fox News on the 28th (local time), Gordon Chang, a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute, diagnosed that "China's simultaneous hostility toward allies such as Taiwan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Australia amid trade friction with the United States reflects the Xi Jinping regime's unwillingness to show signs of yielding to the U.S. while attempting to mask internal fractures with an aggressive stance toward the outside." He warned that "this is a typical behavior of a collapsing regime" and noted "a signal that something is seriously wrong in Beijing."
Recent tensions within China also support this view. The Financial Times reported on the 11th that He Weidong, the third-ranking official in the Chinese military and deputy chairman of the Central Military Commission, who had been rumored to be purged, is under investigation for corruption. He Weidong had not appeared in public since the closing ceremony of the National People’s Congress last month, leading to speculation about his fall from grace. If the report is true, it would mark the first top military general's downfall in 58 years since He Long, deputy chairman of the Central Military Commission in 1967. Given that He Weidong was known to be a close ally of Xi Jinping, his downfall is interpreted as evidence that unexpected fractures are spreading within the regime.
Zhang Youxia, the deputy chairman who is effectively leading the military, is reportedly also establishing a subtle opposition to Xi Jinping. Zhang Youxia is known to have connections to the Communist Youth League faction, which was the power base of former President Hu Jintao, and is following a different path from Xi Jinping. Notably, former President Hu Jintao publicly opposed Xi's third term announcement during the National People's Congress (Two Sessions) in 2022 and was forcibly removed by security personnel. Subsequently, there are indications that Hu Jintao's associates are regrouping around Zhang Youxia.
Such fractures within the military are further highlighting the instability of the Xi Jinping regime, coinciding with China's hardline foreign stance. According to Reuters, China's Ministry of Commerce has recently started to receive requests from corporations for tariff exemptions on certain items. While this appears to be a measure to alleviate trade friction on the surface, there is a prevailing interpretation that it is an unavoidable response to worsening economic conditions. The Chinese economy is facing a structural crisis due to a real estate slump, soaring youth unemployment, and a slowdown in domestic consumption.
Gordon Chang emphasized that "China has been covertly suspending tariff collections on some U.S. imports, including semiconductors, aerospace products, and medical devices, a move that reflects internal pressure while denying explicit concessions," and said, "This is an example of the vulnerabilities of the currently uncompromising and rigid Chinese political system."