Amid escalating tariff wars with the United States, Chinese President Xi Jinping conducted diplomatic visits to three Southeast Asian countries (Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia) in mid-month, but the effectiveness is assessed to be less than before.
Superficially, President Xi showcased strengthened relations by signing dozens of cooperation documents with each country. However, Southeast Asian nations clearly demonstrated their cautious stance toward the expansion of Chinese influence and pursued a 'balance diplomacy' seeking real benefits amidst the U.S.-China rivalry.
On the 29th (local time), Reuters assessed that this Southeast Asian tour was a strategic move to strengthen solidarity by directly visiting key Southeast Asian nations while the economic pressure from the U.S. against China intensifies.
President Xi had summit meetings in each visiting country and unpacked a bundle of gifts. At the same time, he concluded over 100 cooperation agreements during the three-country visit, signing 45 documents with Vietnam, 31 with Malaysia, and 37 with Cambodia.
The agreements encompassed stabilization of supply chains by sector, cooperation in key mineral resources, infrastructure investments such as cross-border railway consolidation, exchanges in the digital economy and artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and extensions of mutual visa exemption periods (with Malaysia).
In particular, President Xi indirectly criticized the trade pressures initiated by the U.S. Trump administration in public statements immediately following the summits with each leader.
He said in Vietnam, 'There are no winners in a tariff war.' In Malaysia, he noted his opposition to 'hegemony and protectionism,' emphasizing the importance of building an international order centered around the United Nations (UN) and an open global economy.
Reuters interpreted this as China focusing on enhancing its image as the guardian of multilateralism against U.S. unilateralism and intended to emphasize a stable and predictable partnership to Southeast Asian nations.
However, contrary to China's expectations, an exclusive 'anti-U.S. solidarity' was not realized. Southeast Asian nations drew the line at openly building anti-U.S. solidarity. The three countries President Xi visited did not include any phrases in the joint statements that excluded or criticized specific nations.
The British media outlet The Guardian reported, 'The joint statement released immediately after the first schedule, the visit to Vietnam, did not include language about an anti-U.S. joint response.'
CNN quoted experts saying, 'President Xi attempted to reshape the Asian supply chain in response to the tariff bomb from the U.S., but each nation showed signs of distancing itself from China,' and noted that particularly Vietnam was wary of being used as a conduit for Chinese products to evade U.S. tariffs.
Instead, Vietnam and Malaysia filled their joint statement with general expressions such as 'support for a multilateral trade system,' 'open and inclusive regional cooperation,' and 'respect for international law.'
Experts noted that Southeast Asian nations' long-maintained strategy of 'balancing diplomacy' remains effective. These nations have maximized their national interests by maintaining friendly relations with both countries rather than taking sides in the U.S.-China power rivalry.
Recently, Southeast Asian nations have strengthened their economic cooperation with close China while not neglecting security and economic cooperation ties with the U.S.
The Philippines conducted the largest-ever joint military exercises with the U.S. in conjunction with President Xi's Southeast Asian tour. This training, called Balikatan, takes place near the South China Sea, where tensions with China exist. Malaysia signed a large-scale purchase contract for Boeing aircraft from the U.S.
The Economist assessed, 'President Xi's tour was an all-out effort for China to maintain and expand its influence in Southeast Asia, the frontline of U.S.-China strategic competition, but it reaffirmed the diplomatic autonomy of member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).'
However, President Xi did not return empty-handed. In Cambodia, he signed investment and construction contracts with Chinese corporations for the construction project of the Phnom Techo Canal, estimated at $1.2 billion (approximately 1.7 trillion won). The South China Morning Post reported this as a case that reaffirmed China's overwhelming economic influence over Cambodia.
However, experts pointed out that most of the cooperation documents signed with Vietnam and Malaysia, significantly larger economies than Cambodia, are in the form of non-binding memorandums of understanding (MOUs). According to Reuters, many of these lacked concrete implementation plans and funding provisions.
Jane Goh, a professor at the Asia-Pacific Studies Institute at the Australian National University, noted in a report published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace after President Xi's tour, 'China needs to enhance its economic incentives in Southeast Asia, but financial constraints and geopolitical tensions are blocking this.'
The coercive attitude of the Chinese government shown in the South China Sea territorial disputes and the deeply rooted distrust of Southeast Asian nations towards 'wolf warrior diplomacy' are fundamental factors hindering China's progress in the region.
'Wolf warrior diplomacy' refers to demonstrating rough strength externally like a wolf. It derives its name from the blindly patriotic movie 'Wolf Warrior' made in China. Chinese diplomats and scholars have actively defended China's position based on this principle rather than focusing on external communication.
The Chinese government packaged superficial achievements with numerous signed cooperation documents, but it could not overcome the realistic obstacles posed by the Southeast Asian nations' pragmatic balancing diplomacy.
Nikkei Asia quoted experts saying, 'Last year, China's GDP growth rate slowed down to 4.7%, and this year, the high tariffs from the U.S. have also shrunk China's investment capacity in Southeast Asia.' It noted, 'In contrast, the U.S. has strengthened supply chain cooperation through the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), and Japan, an ally of the U.S., invested over $20 billion (approximately 28.08 trillion won) in Southeast Asian infrastructure alone last year.'