On the 28th (local time), a general election will be held to elect Canada’s next leader.
This election, taking place amid heightened tensions between the United States and Canada due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policy and merger remarks, sees the ruling Liberal Party led by Mark Carney having regained some support, making the possibility of re-election strong. In this context, attention is focused on whether the main opposition Conservative Party can narrow the gap at the last minute.
According to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) poll tracker, as of the 26th, support for the Liberal Party was at 42.5%, ahead of the Conservative Party (38.7%) by 3.8 percentage points. Following were the Bloc Québécois at 23%, the New Democratic Party (NDP) at 5%, and the Green Party Korea at 1%.
The probability of the Liberal Party obtaining a majority of seats (172 or more) is reported to be 74%, and if securing the most seats is included, the probability of winning the general election is counted at 91%.
The Liberal Party won the general election in 2021 but failed to achieve a majority, leading it to form a coalition with smaller opposition parties. Having been in power for nearly nine years, the Liberal Party experienced a decline in support due to high inflation and surging dwelling prices, and it was significantly behind the Conservative Party in various polls until former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation.
However, within three months of President Trump’s inauguration, the Conservative Party transitioned to a disadvantage. Repeated tariff offensives and remarks about making Canada the 51st state of the United States stirred anti-American sentiments, which worked in favor of the Liberal Party.
However, as the election nears, the gap between the support for the Liberal and Conservative parties is narrowing, indicating a competitive race. Regardless of which party wins, if they fail to secure a majority of seats, there is a possibility that a minority government system will continue, leading to ongoing political uncertainties.
Meanwhile, how President Trump responds has emerged as a key issue, heating up the election atmosphere. According to Agence France-Presse (AFP), 7.3 million people participated in early voting, marking a 25% increase compared to the 2021 general election.