As concerns grow over an economic downturn triggered by Donald Trump's tariff policy, attention is focused on the first economic performance report since the launch of the second Trump administration.
According to Bloomberg on the 26th (local time), the U.S. Department of Commerce is set to release preliminary figures for the first quarter (January to March) gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate on the 30th.
Bloomberg expects that the U.S. GDP for this quarter will see an increase of only 0.4% on an annualized basis compared to the previous quarter. This figure represents a sharp slowdown compared to a 2.4% increase in the fourth quarter of last year and marks the lowest growth rate in nearly three years since the 0.3% in the second quarter of 2022.
Analysts at Bloomberg Economics noted, "The increase in tariffs by the Trump administration has led corporations to increase imports, exacerbating the trade deficit and causing significant damage to the growth rate."
In a monthly survey conducted by Bloomberg among economists, respondents forecast the U.S. economic growth rates for this year and next to be 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively, a downward adjustment from the March estimates of 2.0% and 1.9%.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also revised its U.S. growth rate forecast for this year down by 0.9 percentage points to 1.8% on the 22nd. The global economic growth rate forecast for this year was also adjusted downward to 2.8%.
In particular, according to the Bloomberg survey, the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession within the next 12 months surged from 30% in March to 45% in April. This figure has been on the rise for three consecutive months since January of this year.
Meanwhile, CNBC reported that among Americans, concerns about a recession due to tariff increases are growing, with an increasing number of instances recalling the 2008 global financial crisis. Additionally, the popularity of recession-themed content is rising, and even the possibility of increased divorce rates is being discussed. According to Google, this month's search volume for 'global financial crisis' is expected to hit the highest level since 2010, while searches related to 'Great Depression' are projected to exceed levels seen in early 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Emmanuel Avenkasis, an economist at Goldman Sachs, predicted, "If the signs of economic slowdown revealed in the current survey continue, signals such as slowing inflation, decreased consumption, and worsening employment will start to be reflected in official statistics by late summer." Goldman Sachs explained that distinct signs of deterioration generally emerge about four months after an economic shock.