A shooting terror incident that occurred in the resort of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir is driving nuclear-armed India and Pakistan into the worst military conflict crisis in six years.
Following the attack targeting tourists on the 22nd (local time), which killed at least 26 people and injured 17, tensions between the two countries are escalating rapidly.
According to Al Jazeera on the 25th, the Ministry of National Defense of Pakistan claimed that "India is planning attacks across Pakistan" and warned, "If the attacks occur, we will certainly retaliate."
Immediately after the shooting terror incident, the Indian government officially pointed to Pakistan as behind the terrorism. Indian police revealed that of the three armed assailants shot dead at the scene, two were of Pakistani nationality. They also added that these individuals belonged to the Pakistani-based armed group "Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT)" faction "Kashmir Resistance Front (TRF)."
The Indian government immediately took strong diplomatic and economic retaliatory measures. It summoned the Pakistani ambassador to India, Saad Ahmad Warraich, to lodge a strong protest and closed major border crossings connecting the two countries.
BBC reported that three days after the terror attack, it quickly announced additional pressure measures such as banning Pakistani aircraft from entering Indian airspace, restricting flights between India and Pakistan, and blocking the official social media accounts of the Pakistani government.
Military tensions near the border between the two countries have reached the highest level in six years. The Indian military has redeployed troops to the northern border control line (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir, which is considered a global conflict zone.
Al Jazeera assessed that they have effectively entered a state of 'act of war' without a formal declaration of war.
Pakistan currently completely denies India's claims, calling them "baseless accusations." In fact, they countered that this incident could be India's "false flag operation." The Pakistan Foreign Ministry, in a statement the day before, said, "Instead of accusations, we should clarify the truth through a thorough and transparent investigation."
They subsequently presented a 'retaliatory package' including trade suspension, airspace restrictions, and reduction of diplomatic personnel, with the same intensity as India. Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif noted, "If we are blamed without evidence, we will consider all possible options," hinting at further retaliation. It is reported that the Pakistan military has already raised the alert level of its air defense units to the highest level.
The mountainous area near Kashmir is claimed by both India and Pakistan as their territory. Over the years, both countries have engaged in numerous clashes over this region.
The most recent large-scale bloodshed dates back to February 2019. Following a suicide bombing in Pulwama, Indian-administered Kashmir, that killed over 40 Indian police officers, India conducted airstrikes on terrorist camps located in Balakot, Pakistan. Pakistan immediately retaliated by shooting down two Indian fighter jets. The two nations reached a point just shy of full-scale war. CNN reported that "the two countries considered missile launches just one day later."
In 1999, the two countries' militaries engaged in actual combat for more than two months in the Kargil region of Kashmir. This engagement, known as the "Kargil War," resulted in nearly 1,000 casualties. The terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001 also drove relations between the two countries to an extreme level. Since then, there have been prolonged tensions and renewed clashes.
In 2021, the two nations managed to reach a ceasefire agreement. However, this incident has placed that agreement in jeopardy, rendering it ineffective before it could last even five years.
Germany's DW described the Pahalgam terror attack as "a setback and tragedy for Indian security," reporting that "the regional stability that had been difficult to maintain has been seriously undermined."
The international community has urged both nuclear-armed countries for immediate de-escalation and restraint. The United Nations (UN) issued a statement on the 24th warning that "a miscalculation between the two countries that possess nuclear weapons could have catastrophic consequences."
Foreign media, including CNN, quote regional experts as saying that "the possibility of a small-scale localized conflict has reached its highest level since 2019" and warned that if tensions escalate, the "Indus Water Treaty" signed in 1960 could be shaken, leading to a "water war." It means that if India, which controls the upper reaches of the Indus River, weaponizes water resources, the situation could worsen.