On the 22nd, the day after the death of Pope Francis, China officially expressed its condolences and stated its willingness to improve relations with the Vatican. However, experts predict that the relationship between the two sides will remain uncertain even after the election of the next pope. In particular, the issues of Taiwan and bishop appointment rights are still considered major challenges.
During a regular briefing the day before, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its condolences over the pope's death and said, "China is ready to work with the Vatican for the continuous development of bilateral relations." The Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted that when former Pope Benedict XVI passed away, condolences were expressed a week later, but this time, they issued a statement and conveyed their condolences just one day later.
According to the South China Morning Post, Pope Francis referred to China as "a commitment and hope for the Catholic Church" during his lifetime and has worked hard to improve relations between the two countries. In August 2014, the year after his inauguration, he visited South Korea and when passing over Chinese airspace said, "I have offered many prayers for the beautiful and noble Chinese people, the wise people," and if asked if he would like to visit China, he responded, "Of course. I would go even tomorrow."
In 2018, a pivotal agreement was reached regarding the appointment of bishops between China and the Vatican. This agreement is known to involve the joint appointment of bishops by the Chinese government and the Vatican. Some criticized that the Vatican had succumbed to China, but the agreement is said to have been made in accordance with Pope Francis's firm conviction.
At that time, the Catholic Church in China was divided into government-approved churches and an 'underground church' following the Vatican without government approval, and the agreement was interpreted as an attempt to resolve this division. The agreement was extended for two years in 2020 and 2022, and in 2024 it will be extended for four years, remaining valid until 2028. At that time, the Chinese government evaluated the agreement, saying, "Communication between the two sides has been effective, and the agreement signifies that trust has built up between them. It is a very good progress."
In this context, the immediate expression of condolences by the Chinese government upon the passing of Pope Francis, unlike in the past, raises hopes for improvement in relations between the two sides. However, experts caution against premature optimism. Although Pope Francis contributed to improving bilateral relations, China and the Vatican have maintained diplomatic tensions for decades.
First, there is the Taiwan issue. China severed diplomatic ties with the Vatican after it recognized Taiwan as a government in 1951 and has since not established formal diplomatic relations. The Vatican is one of the 12 countries that maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and most governments that have established relations with China have severed ties with Taiwan.
There is also the conflict over bishop appointment rights. China does not allow the pope to independently appoint bishops and cardinals. The South China Morning Post explained, "The Communist Party of China regards religion, especially the Catholic Church with a growing membership, as a threat to the regime and is wary of delegating such powers to the pope."
Yoon Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, said, "The Vatican's approach to China may change significantly depending on the disposition of the next pope," and added, "If a conservative and traditionalist pope is elected, he may retreat from the practical and flexible China diplomacy that Pope Francis has pursued. For example, there is a possibility of revoking the authority for bishop appointments."
Chinese foreign policy experts unanimously agreed that no matter who the next pope is, China's policies toward the Vatican will not change easily. A former Taiwanese diplomat who requested anonymity told the South China Morning Post, "Normalization of relations between the Vatican and China will not happen in the short term." The South China Morning Post reported that "Chinese foreign policy experts agree that whoever succeeds Pope Francis, China will no longer compromise in its relations with the Vatican."
Meanwhile, Taiwan raised flags at half-mast on the 21st and 22nd to commemorate Pope Francis. The Taiwanese government plans to send a special envoy to the pope's funeral, and high-ranking officials are expected to attend mourning masses in their country.