On the 21st (local time), Pope Francis passed away, and the Vatican has entered the 'Conclave' procedure to elect a new pope early next month. As the world focuses on the candidates to succeed Pope Francis, the likelihood of a pope emerging from the United States is seen as low.
The Washington Post (WP) reported that "the possibility of an American pope has always been considered very low or even impossible," noting that while the complex process of electing the next pope has begun, the prospect of an American pope is still regarded as low. In fact, there has been no pope born in the United States in the entire history of Catholicism.
The reason it is difficult for an American to become pope is that the United States is the world's strongest superpower. Due to the immense influence the U.S. has on global culture and economy, a mood seems to have developed within the Vatican to suppress American power as much as possible. John Allen Jr., a Vatican expert and author of the book 'Conclave,' previously said in an interview with the New York Post (WP) that the likelihood of selecting an American pope is slim.
The small number of American cardinals with voting rights in the Conclave also influenced this situation. Currently, out of 252 cardinals, 138 under the age of 80 have voting rights regarding the selection of the next pope, and among them, American cardinals are estimated to be nine in total. Purely in terms of probability, this is only 6.5%. The Conclave proceeds with secret voting, but since a candidate must receive more than two-thirds of the votes to be elected, the possibility of an American pope is regarded as low.
Among the candidates currently mentioned for the next pope is an American, Cardinal Robert Prevost (69). Born in Chicago, Cardinal Prevost has worked in Peru for decades and has been head of the Vatican's World Bishop Selection Committee since 2023. As an American, he also serves as the head of the South American bishop's council, where the number of Catholic believers is the highest globally. In the United States, the percentage of Catholics in the total population is about 20%, while in South America, it reaches 50%.
Cardinal Raymond Burke (76) is also being mentioned as a papal candidate. Appointed a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2010, Cardinal Burke is regarded as a staunch conservative. He has clashed with Pope Francis over the issue of allowing couples who have divorced and remarried to receive communion. Previously, following the resignation of former Pope Benedict XVI in 2013, Cardinal Sean O'Malley of Boston and Archbishop Timothy Dolan of New York were also mentioned as potential candidates for the next pope.
While American cardinals are being mentioned as candidates for pope, they are not regarded as strong contenders. According to a report by The Independent citing the online betting site William Hill, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines and Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the current Secretary of State of the Vatican from Italy, are considered strong candidates for the papacy.
The Independent reported that "the American Catholic Church is one of the largest and wealthiest in the world, but there has yet to be a pope born in the United States," adding that "an American must demonstrate other qualities such as overseas experience and language skills to take on the papacy." However, with the Vatican starting to show more progressive tendencies after Pope Francis and the potential for the first Asian or black pope being discussed, there are opinions suggesting that an American-born pope is not impossible.