The death of Pope Francis II will lead the Roman Catholic Church to enter a 'conclave' to elect the next pope within 15 to 20 days. This election is expected to be the largest in history and will be what foreign media foresee as an 'unpredictable election.'
According to reports from The Washington Post (WP) and The New York Times (NYT) on the 21st, the conclave will take place for the first time in 12 years since the resignation of former Pope Benedict XVI in 2013. Voting will continue until a specific candidate receives more than two-thirds of the votes. There are 140 cardinals under the age of 80 who have the right to vote. Although theoretically anyone baptized can be elected pope, realistically, it is likely that the pope will be elected from within the cardinalate.
Among the current 135 eligible voters, 108 were appointed by Pope Francis; however, not all of them strictly adhere to his beliefs. They express a variety of opinions on various issues, including gender equality and LGBTQ rights.
This is interpreted as an expansion of diversity within the cardinalate compared to the past. During his tenure, Pope Francis appointed cardinals from various backgrounds. Notably, unlike the past, when most were from Europe, there has been an increase in cardinals from regions outside Europe, such as Africa, Asia, and South America. As a result, this conclave is expected to be the first in which the majority are from non-European backgrounds.
Experts predict that it will be difficult for extreme conservative or progressive candidates to gain support in this election. They also forecast a preference for high-ranking clergy with rich experience in complex international relations.
The Wall Street Journal mentioned a total of 11 cardinals as strong candidates. They include ▲ Cardinal Arborelius (Stockholm, Sweden) ▲ Cardinal Charles Maung Bo (Yangon, Myanmar) ▲ Cardinal François-Xavier Bouchard (Ajaccio, France) ▲ Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo) ▲ Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline (Marseille, France) ▲ Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Manila, Philippines) ▲ Cardinal Mario Grech (Vatican City) ▲ Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Bologna, Italy) ▲ Cardinal Péter Erdő (Budapest, Hungary) ▲ Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Jerusalem) ▲ Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Secretary of State of the Vatican).
Among them, The New York Times introduced Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa as the 'highest authority in charge of the Middle East at the Vatican,' noting that he gained fame based on his experience in some of the world's most intense conflict regions. However, it also reported that his age of 60 is considered young for the position of pope.
Regarding Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Secretary of State of the Vatican, it was noted that he has served over 20 years as a diplomat and Deputy Minister of the Vatican and has led the Vatican's international relations. 'He is an expert on Asia and recently played a key role in advancing the Vatican's relations with China and Vietnam,' it said.
Next, the potential candidacy of Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo from the Congo was highlighted, saying, 'Africa is the region where the church is the most vibrant. It produces more seminarians than any other region in the world,' and added, 'Questions about when the church will elect a pope from Africa have been raised continuously.'
For the Asia region, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines was named as a strong candidate. It was remarked, 'He is called the Francis of Asia,' noting that 'his human side resembles that of Pope Francis, who pays attention to the poor and those in need of help.'
However, among experts, there is a sentiment that 'predicting the results of the conclave always ends in failure,' indicating uncertainty about the outcome of the next pope's election. The New York Times reported that 'Pope Francis appointed a relatively large number of cardinals in a short time during his tenure, leading to more diversity in the cardinalate, making it difficult to grasp the internal dynamics and factions within the cardinalate, complicating predictions.'