An analysis has indicated that the United States will be the country most affected by the tariff policy of the Donald Trump administration. Damage to Korea and Japan is expected to be relatively minor.
The Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) announced the results of this analysis on the 22nd. This survey was conducted using a simulation method to assess the impact of the reciprocal tariff measures announced by the Trump administration this month, taking into comprehensive account the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) tariff rates.
The tariff is shown to significantly reduce economic growth in the United States. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2027 is expected to decrease by 5.2%, particularly with the automotive industry's growth rate anticipated to plummet by about 9%.
China is also expected to suffer considerable economic damage. China's GDP in 2027 is projected to decrease by 1.9%. On the other hand, the Japan External Trade Organization predicted that other countries could benefit from reduced exports to the U.S. due to tariffs on China.
The Japan External Trade Organization projected that Korea's GDP in 2027 would decrease by 0.1%, while Japan's GDP is expected to increase by 0.2%. However, when examining the automotive industry alone, both Korea and Japan are expected to see declines of approximately 2.9% and 1.9%, respectively, indicating that the damage is not insignificant.
Additionally, the European Union (EU) is expected to see a 0.3% increase in GDP by 2027. Notably, GDP for Canada and Mexico, which were the first countries subjected to tariffs by the Trump administration, is projected to increase by 2.9% and 4%, respectively, in 2027.
The Japan External Trade Organization stated, "Until now, in cases of imposing tariffs on specific countries, only some nations experienced disadvantages, but this reciprocal tariff policy affects many countries, which complicates its impact on the economy."