This year, the value of the Russian ruble against the U.S. dollar has surged in the global foreign exchange market, achieving the highest rate of increase, surpassing gold, which is considered a safe asset.
According to Bloomberg News on the 15th (local time), the ruble has increased by 38% against the dollar in the over-the-counter (OTC) market so far in 2025. During the same period, gold rose 23%, showing a larger increase. Following that, the Swiss franc increased by 14%, and silver rose by 12%.
This is interpreted as a result of rising market anxiety regarding the dollar due to the continuous tariff offensives by U.S. President Donald Trump, coupled with domestic factors in Russia.
Bloomberg News cited the most significant cause of the ruble's strength as the Central Bank of Russia's ultra-tight monetary policy. Russia is maintaining an ultra-tight monetary policy to address ongoing inflation. The central bank's key interest rate stands at a staggering 21%, the highest in the world. Due to high interest rates, demand for imported goods among Russian consumers and corporations has decreased, leading to a decline in the demand for foreign currency.
Additionally, the Russian government mandates export corporations to convert a certain percentage of foreign currency earnings into rubles domestically. This has also contributed to the ruble's strength.
The easing signs in diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Russia are also stimulating the sentiments of foreign investors, making the ruble more attractive as a target for carry trade strategies, which investing in high-interest currencies for profit.
Furthermore, Russian corporations are pursuing a financial strategy to transition from high-interest ruble liabilities to loans in yuan, which have relatively lower interest rates. In this process, the demand for converting foreign currency into rubles has emerged, supporting the ruble's strength.
However, while the ruble's strength is positive for curbing domestic inflation in Russia, there are concerns that it may exacerbate financial pressures due to declining export revenues and increased defense and welfare expenditures. The Russian government has set the 2025 budget based on an average of 96.5 rubles per dollar, while the current market exchange rate is around 82 rubles, approximately 14% stronger than that. As the ruble shows strength beyond government expectations, recent concerns about economic downturns have caused oil prices to fall, putting Russia in a situation where its main revenue source, oil exports, is decreasing.
Bloomberg News reported, "The ruble's strength is a trend even the Russian government did not anticipate, and there are no clear indicators of a turnaround to weakness so far," adding, "As there is likely to be no interest rate cuts at least until the next quarter, the ruble's strength is likely to continue for some time."