Donald Trump, the President of the United States, imposed high tariffs on imported goods from China, complicating the calculations for European countries. This is due to concerns that low-priced Chinese products would flood their domestic markets. The European Union (EU) has stated it will not accept Chinese dumping, but there are many member states that are friendly to China, raising questions about the effectiveness of this stance.
On the 14th (local time), The New York Times (NYT) highlighted that as a result of the U.S.-China tariff war, Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and electronic products might be dumped in the European market instead of the U.S., reporting on the complex response strategy of the European Union (EU) in this regard.
According to NYT, the EU is closely monitoring the oversupply situation of Chinese products. The EU is poised to respond firmly against dumping without taking sides with either the U.S. or China.
Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, noted on the 3rd that 'we (Europe) cannot bear global overproduction.' A task force (TF) has also been established to monitor import trends in preparation for Chinese dumping.
However, as differences in temperature among member countries are detected, there are analyses suggesting a unified response may be difficult. Pedro Sánchez, the Prime Minister of Spain, recently visited Beijing, meeting with President Xi Jinping to seek to expand cooperation between the two countries. Germany has previously opposed the EU's push to increase tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles last year, emphasizing the protection of its domestic auto industry.
Since leaving the EU in 2020, the United Kingdom has adopted a more independent course. Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, emphasizes a 'consistent, durable, respectful' relationship based on respect with China while attempting to strengthen cooperation with China as a way to revitalize the stagnant British economy.
China is also accelerating its diplomatic offensive towards Europe. The Chinese embassy in the EU has recently published a series of promotional articles in prominent Belgian media, presenting the message that 'the hurricane from Washington shows that China is indeed Europe's strategic partner.' Plans to expand production bases in Europe are also underway.
However, in the short term, the EU seems more likely to hope for a de-escalation of trade conflicts between the U.S. and China rather than extending a hand to China. It is observed that, already suffering from a long-standing trade deficit with China, the EU will focus on minimizing the fallout rather than provoking direct conflict.
Noah Barkin, a senior researcher at consulting firm Rhodium Group, warned that 'the worst-case scenario from a European perspective is having to cope with high tariffs from the U.S. and an influx of low-priced Chinese products simultaneously.'
Liana Fix, a researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), also analyzed in an interview with NYT that 'for now, avoiding conflict is the top priority for the EU,' adding that 'the EU's short-term goal seems to be to endure safely until the expected summit with China in the second half of July.'