Eight days before the earthquake in Myanmar, Chinese seismologists confirmed that they had published research results warning of the risk of a massive earthquake. The research team noted that "the Myanmar earthquake may be just the beginning, not the end," warning that there is a high possibility of major earthquakes in southwestern China and near the Himalayas in the coming years.
According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP) on the 6th, a research team led by Zhu Hongbin from the Beijing Earthquake Administration published a paper containing this information in the Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics, an academic journal under the China Earthquake Administration, on the 20th of last month.
The research team analyzed earthquake data spanning about 150 years from 1879 to the present and identified six major 'active periods' of earthquakes in regions adjacent to China. The study suggested that some areas in China might have entered an active period for earthquakes again, as the Myanmar earthquake last month occurred precisely at a location that aligns with this prediction, increasing attention to the research.
The research categorized the earthquake active periods into a total of five phases: 1897-1912, 1920-1934, 1946-1957, 1970-1976, and 2001-2015. The study stated, "We are now in the 6th phase, with earthquakes occurring mainly around the Bayan Har region in Mongolia," adding that "the stress axis will shift northeast, increasing earthquake risks in China's Sichuan, Yunnan, and Himalayan regions. We may currently be in the early stage of the earthquake active period."
Some experts are cautioning against over-interpretation, noting that global earthquake activity is quieter than in previous years. A researcher from the Research Institute of the China Earthquake Administration stated, "Currently, there is no clear evidence that the Earth has entered an active period for earthquakes," adding, "In fact, earthquake activity thus far in 2025 has been lower than the historical average."
Meanwhile, on the 28th of last month, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck Myanmar, resulting in thousands of fatalities and injuries. On the tenth day since the earthquake occurred, the death toll exceeded 3,500, with 5,012 injured and 210 reported missing.
According to SCMP, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake occurred in the northeastern waters of Tonga in the South Pacific on the 30th of last month. Fortunately, there were no casualties resulting from tsunamis or other disasters. This month, minor earthquakes have occurred in regions including Tibet and Guangdong.