On the 2nd (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 34% reciprocal tariff on Chinese imports, prompting interest in China's retaliation. Following Trump's second term, China has responded to additional tariffs each time, but has appeared to avoid a full-scale conflict considering domestic burdens. Nevertheless, with the addition of a total 54% tariff, it is expected that China will now target politically sensitive products for a 'precision strike.'
On the 3rd, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce stated regarding the U.S. reciprocal tariff imposition, "China firmly opposes this and will take resolute countermeasures to safeguard its own rights and interests." They added that "(the U.S. reciprocal tariff) does not comply with international trade rules and is a typical unilateral bullying act that seriously undermines the legitimate rights and interests of the related countries," urging the U.S. to immediately retract its unilateral tariff measures and resolve disputes appropriately through equal dialogue with trading partners.
On that day, Trump announced the imposition of 'reciprocal tariffs' on countries worldwide. A basic tariff of 10% was placed on all countries, with individual tariffs added for the 'worst offenders.' As a result, China was hit with a 34% tariff, which is the sum of 10% and an additional 24%. Trump had previously imposed 20% tariffs on Chinese imports in February and March of this year, each amounting to 10%. With this latest announcement, tariffs on Chinese products imported by the U.S. have increased by 54% in just three months. Trump had pledged to impose an additional 60% tariff on Chinese imports during the election campaign, and this is nearly becoming a reality.
Attention is now focused on how China will respond to the U.S. On February 4, when the first '10%' tariff took effect, China imposed a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) on February 10, and a 10% tariff on U.S. crude oil, agricultural machinery, and large pickup trucks. Additionally, export controls have begun on rare minerals like tungsten, of which China controls 80% of the global production, and sanctions on companies such as Google are also in effect. After the 10% tariff was added on the 4th of last month, on the 10th, China increased tariffs on U.S. chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton by 15%, while tariffs on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products were raised by 10%. Several U.S. defense corporations were also added as 'unreliable companies' subject to export controls. Being included as an unreliable company prohibits engaging in export-import activities related to China and bans new investments in China.
China is also expected to retaliate against the U.S., with forecasts suggesting a likelihood of more 'precision strikes.' In terms of previous retaliatory tariffs, their scale has not been significant, and most corporations have already faced sanctions, leading to criticisms of their ineffectiveness. There is considerable pressure from economic sluggishness, and analyses suggest that cards must be held back in preparation for an all-out tariff war with the U.S. However, with the U.S. raising tariffs on China to nearly 60% on that day, it is said that it is now time for China to launch a proper attack.
Craig Singleton, senior researcher in charge of China at the U.S. think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted, "Instead of broad retaliation, there may be new tariffs imposed on politically sensitive U.S. exports such as agriculture, industry, and machinery," and he added, "There is likely to be a strategy of precise pressure, including expanding the 'unreliable companies' list targeting well-known U.S. corporations and selective export controls on key raw materials." Steven Olson, senior researcher at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singapore-based ASEAN research institution, also stated, "China may undertake a 'strong yet proportionate' response, targeting U.S. corporations dependent on the Chinese market, beyond just increasing tariffs."
Meanwhile, there is speculation that as the U.S. imposes reciprocal tariffs on South Korea and the European Union (EU), China may gain a reflective advantage on the world stage. Since the Trump administration’s second term, China has been continually emphasizing that it is a 'trustworthy partner.' Jason Shu, senior researcher at the Hudson Institute, stated, "With the U.S. becoming an 'unpredictable partner,' countries in East Asia like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are likely to reassess their relations with the U.S., which could potentially benefit China." He added, "Especially, Japan and South Korea have large economies but are not yet in a position to retaliate against the U.S.; the best they can do is quietly continue to develop relations with China and reassess opportunities in the Chinese market."