The first-instance ruling for Marine Le Pen, a leading candidate for the upcoming president, who has been prosecuted for embezzlement of European Union (EU) funds, will be announced on the 31st (local time). If found guilty, it is expected that running in the 2027 French presidential election will become difficult, causing significant changes in the French political landscape.
According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and BBC on the 30th, Le Pen has been charged with improperly using European Parliament funds. French prosecutors believe that Le Pen diverted approximately €4.5 million (about 72 billion won) of EU funds intended for her political party and associates for their activities during her time as a Member of the European Parliament.
The investigation began in 2017 when the French representation to the European Parliament raised suspicions during an audit that the pay for aides of members of the National Front did not match their actual working status. Prosecutors believe that more than 20 individuals, including past and present members of the National Rally, have systematically misappropriated EU funds alongside Le Pen.
Prosecutors have sought a five-year prison sentence and a ban on Le Pen from running for public office. According to BBC, the prosecution has specifically demanded that the ban on running should take effect immediately, regardless of any appeal. If the court confirms a guilty verdict and accepts the prosecution's request, Le Pen will be unable to run in the 2027 French presidential election. The Paris criminal court will deliver the first-instance ruling for Le Pen and over 20 other defendants on the 31st.
According to BBC analysis, alongside the scenario in which a guilty verdict is issued and the ban from running for public office takes effect, there are three other possible outcomes. First, while an acquittal is considered unlikely, there is also a possibility of a guilty verdict being issued with a suspension of the official ban on running, or a short-term limitation on her candidacy. In that case, Le Pen would still bear the political burden of a guilty verdict but would be able to run in the 2027 presidential election.
Le Pen's defense team has raised issues, arguing that the law under which the charges are brought did not exist during the period in question (2004–2017) as it was enacted in 2016. Le Pen has described the trial as a 'political death sentence' and 'a very violent attack on the will of the people,' claiming judicial repression.
Le Pen, the daughter of Jean-Marie Le Pen, founder of the National Front, would see her candidacy stripped if found guilty, meaning that the French presidential election would be held for the first time in 40 years without a candidate from the Le Pen family, according to the New York Times (NYT). Le Pen, who is challenging for the fourth time, has emerged as a key player in French politics, making it to the finals in the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections. Recently, she has consistently led in polls ahead of all competitors, making her the strongest rival to President Emmanuel Macron.
This trial is sending ripples not only through French domestic politics but also through European politics. The far-right forces in France are a key pillar of the right-wing populism wave that has been rising across Europe. In this context, if Le Pen suffers a political blow, a shift in the party's leadership structure will become inevitable, WSJ reported.
If Le Pen is unable to run, Jordan Bardella, the leader of the National Rally, is highly likely to become the alternative candidate. Bardella, a 29-year-old politician, has served as a Member of the European Parliament and is receiving strong support among young people and moderates. He has been groomed as a potential next prime minister. However, many analyses indicate that he lacks the national recognition and cohesion that Le Pen possesses, raising uncertainties about his actual competitiveness in the presidential election, according to WSJ.