Analysis has shown that the death toll from a magnitude 7.7 earthquake in central Myanmar is likely to exceed 10,000, with a probability of over 70%.

On Mar. 28, a powerful earthquake with a magnitude of 7.7 occurs about 17.2 km away from Mandalay, Myanmar's second-largest city, at around 12:50 PM local time. /Courtesy of News1

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) stated in a report updated at 12:50 a.m. local time on the 29th in Myanmar that the likelihood of the death toll from this earthquake rising over 10,000 is 71%.

USGS analyzed that the probability of deaths exceeding 100,000 is 36%, the probability of deaths between 10,000 and 100,000 is 35%, the probability of deaths between 1,000 and 10,000 is 22%, and the probability of deaths between 100 and 1,000 is 6%.

Regarding economic losses, the probability of exceeding $100 billion (approximately 147 trillion won) is 33%, the probability of losses between $10 billion and $100 billion (14 trillion to 147 trillion won) is 35%, the probability of losses between $1 billion and $10 billion (1.5 trillion to 14 trillion won) is 24%, and the probability of losses between $100 million and $1 billion (150 billion to 1.5 trillion won) is 7%.

USGS noted that this earthquake falls under the level of "red alert for vibration-related deaths and economic losses," stating that "there could be many casualties and extensive damage, and a large-scale disaster is highly likely." Additionally, it explained that "the estimated economic losses could exceed Myanmar's Gross Domestic Product (GDP)."

The report also included an estimate that the number of people exposed to a JINDO level of 9 (where significant damage occurs even in well-designed buildings and major damage occurs in ordinary structures) was approximately 3,709,000.

Earlier, on the 28th at around 12:50 p.m., a magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurred inland in central Myanmar. The head of the Myanmar military, Min Aung Hlaing, announced that 144 people have died and 732 have been injured due to the earthquake. According to CNN, the earthquake triggered incidents in Bangkok, Thailand, over 1,000 km away, where a 30-story building under construction collapsed, resulting in at least 10 deaths and over 100 missing.