China is the world's largest consumer of pork. The proportion of global pork consumption and production accounted for by China exceeds half. As of January this year, the amount of pork imported from the United States to China reached 37.6 million kg. This has drawn global attention because China imposed a 10% additional tariff on all U.S. pork products in retaliation for tariffs imposed by the United States starting from the 10th.
According to the Washington Post (WP) on the 18th (local time), it is expected that the tariffs imposed by China on U.S. pork, given China's strong affinity for the meat, will not cause as much pain for China as initially anticipated. This is because China has made progress in reducing its dependence on U.S. pork to some extent.
Last year, China imported $1.1 billion (approximately 1.6 trillion won) worth of pork from the United States, which accounted for only 0.1% of China’s pork supply. Currently, 97% of the pork market in China is occupied by domestically produced meat. In contrast, U.S. agricultural and livestock products, which have been subjected to tariffs of 10% to 15%, are mostly produced in states like Iowa, North Carolina, and Missouri, where support for the Republican Party is strong. This will inevitably impact Trump’s supporters.
Butchers at Xinfadi, Beijing's largest wholesale market, echoed that tariffs would have little impact on their business. Zhang Haifu, who operates a butcher shop, noted, "We only sell domestic pork, so there is no impact from the trade war."
The Chinese government has been working to reduce its reliance on U.S. agricultural and livestock imports since the trade war that erupted during Trump’s first administration. Although the country faced difficulties in increasing domestic production after the African swine fever outbreak in 2018, the government has strengthened support for pig farms. In 2022, the construction of the 'world's tallest pig farm,' a 26-story facility, was announced in Hubei province.
In recent years, China has diversified its sources for importing pork and pork feed. According to WP, Chinese authorities believe that the tariffs imposed on the U.S. will actually provide an opportunity for other pork-producing countries like Brazil and Spain to increase their market share in China, the world's largest pork consumer. Imports of pork from Russia also began last year.
Zhu Zhenyong, a researcher at the Research Institute of China Agricultural Academy, stated that imports from countries like Brazil and Spain are sufficient to meet pork demand even during the trade war, adding, "In the long run, if Trump continues this policy, U.S. pork will not be competitive in China."
Some argue that as the trade war expands, pork prices in the Chinese market will inevitably rise. This is due to increased feed costs resulting from the trade war and growing uncertainties in the international market. Notably, China relies on U.S. sources for about 35% of the soybeans used in animal feed.
On the other hand, some perspectives suggest that price increases for pork resulting from the trade war may actually benefit China. Even Pei, an agricultural policy expert at the consulting firm Trivium China, said that the tariffs on U.S. pork will decrease imports and drive up prices, calling it "good news for domestic pig farmers in China."