On the 11th (local time), the Portuguese Parliament voted against the confidence motion for the government led by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro (51). As a result, Portugal is facing its third general election in just three years. Earlier, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa had promised to dissolve Parliament if the confidence motion was defeated, so the political turmoil in Portugal is likely to intensify.
According to major foreign media outlets, including BBC, the Parliament voted 142 against the confidence motion for Prime Minister Montenegro's cabinet, resulting in its defeat. Consequently, the center-right coalition, the Social Democratic Party (AD), which took power last March, will relinquish power, and Prime Minister Montenegro, who took office last March, will be stepping down after about 11 months.
◇Political crisis arising from family company controversy
This situation originated from the consulting company "Spinumviva" founded by Prime Minister Montenegro. The Prime Minister established this company in 2021 while away from politics, and when he was elected as the representative of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) the following year, he transferred ownership to his wife and son. Even after the transfer of ownership, the company continued to generate revenue from clients secured by Prime Minister Montenegro.
As the existence of Prime Minister Montenegro's family company became known, conflicts of interest were raised. Particularly, this company had been earning revenue of 4,500 euros per month from a hotel and casino group called Solverde until just a few days ago, and the government is currently reviewing a gambling business license for Solverde. The identities of other clients, which the Prime Minister refused to disclose, further intensified suspicions regarding conflicts of interest.
"Spinumviva"'s legitimacy of services is also under debate. The Prime Minister, who has a background in law, stated that he provides consulting related to data privacy laws through this company and outsources tasks to external experts. However, the Portuguese Bar Association is investigating whether "Spinumviva" is illegally providing services that only lawyers may offer.
The Prime Minister claimed that while "Spinumviva" has contracts with private companies, there is nothing wrong or ethically flawed. However, according to Portuguese law, all assets acquired by a couple after marriage are regarded as jointly owned, so even if he transferred ownership of the company to his wife, the company's profits could ultimately be viewed as the Prime Minister's. The Prime Minister proposed this vote to resolve the political controversy surrounding him, but ultimately lost.
◇Voter fatigue and prolonged chaos
Portugal held its last general election in March of last year after former Prime Minister António Costa resigned. The next election was originally scheduled for January 2028, but due to the recent vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister, an early election is highly likely to take place in May. Prime Minister Montenegro has stated that he will run in the early election.
However, it is uncertain whether Prime Minister Montenegro's Social Democratic Party will be able to reclaim power. Recent polls show that the Socialist Party (PS) has surpassed the Social Democratic Party since the end of last week. According to a survey by the Portuguese daily newspaper "Diário de Notícias," support for the Socialist Party is at 30.8%, while support for the Social Democratic Party is at 25.8%. The far-right party, Chega, is also rising rapidly.
The poor reputation of other opposition parties may be a variable in the early election. One member of Chega was charged in January for stealing someone else's luggage at Lisbon Airport, and in February, a senior party member was brought to trial for allegedly providing sexual services to a minor. Meanwhile, the center-left Socialist Party is the one that caused the early election last March when former Prime Minister Costa resigned over the "lithium corruption scandal."
BBC reported, "None of the major parties show interest in the early election," adding that "one of the main reasons for concern is whether voters will show enthusiasm about having to choose a new government in less than a year of the current administration." AP noted, "Amid $24 billion in investments through the European Union development funds, Portugal will face months of political uncertainty."