The United States stated that Iran's nuclear facility was completely destroyed in an airstrike, but Iran is asserting that "the damage is not significant." Observations have also emerged that Iran's trucks were spotted densely packed around the nuclear facility before the U.S. airstrike, suggesting that they may have moved enriched uranium elsewhere.
Experts believe that while there is a possibility that Iran has diverted enriched uranium elsewhere, it is unlikely that the nuclear program can operate normally for the time being due to damage to power supplies and centrifuges.
Jung Beom-jin, a professor at Kyunghee University, said on the 24th, "If uranium is enriched to more than 90% and is gathered in amounts greater than 10 kg, it can explode, but if the mass is below that, it does not react to heat, temperature, pressure, or shock. For a nuclear reaction to occur, neutrons are needed, and neutrons quickly disappear from the atmosphere, rendering them virtually absent."
He also noted, "Enriched uranium can be stored in regular warehouses without special equipment." This means that enriched uranium can be moved at room temperature without the risk of radiation or explosion.
Jung Yong-hoon, a professor at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), also stated, "There is almost no radiation emitted from enriched uranium. It is common to work while wearing gloves, but it can also be handled with bare hands."
The New York Times (NYT) and The Washington Post (WP) reported that 16 large cargo trucks were lined up at the entrance of the Fordow nuclear facility, which produces most of Iran's highly enriched uranium, based on satellite images released by U.S. Maxar Technologies on the 19th.
At another Iranian nuclear facility in Isfahan, trucks and heavy equipment were also spotted at the entrance of a tunnel last week. This suggests that Iran may have moved enriched uranium to another location in anticipation of possible bombardment of its nuclear facilities after the first airstrike from Israel on the 13th.
The NYT reported, citing Israeli sources, that "Iran moved some equipment and 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium from the Fordow nuclear facility to another location a few days ago."
Isfahan, which is believed to store about 60% of Iran's enriched uranium, is known to have nuclear facilities deeper than those at Fordow. The U.S. dropped only more than 20 Tomahawk cruise missiles without using bunker busters that penetrate down to 60 meters underground. Satellite images suggest that only some surface structures in Isfahan appear to have sustained damage.
Military expert Jeffrey Lewis told CNN, "The highly enriched uranium stored underground in Isfahan is likely to remain." An anonymous U.S. intelligence official stated to CNN, "Fordow is so deep that multiple bunker busters must hit precisely at one point to cause destruction, and Isfahan is located even deeper. Striking it with existing weapons is virtually impossible. New bombs may need to be created, or nuclear weapons may have to be used."
Even if Iran moved enriched uranium to another location, it is assumed that the facilities themselves, including the tunnel entrance and ventilation systems, would have sustained damage. The Fordow site is known to produce weapon-grade uranium with more than 1,000 centrifuges. CNN reported that "it will take at least a few months to normalize electricity supply."