The U.S. June Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase rate matched market expectations, but the rise in service prices such as medical and auto insurance exceeded forecasts. As a result, there are projections that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain a cautious stance regarding interest rate cuts.
According to the financial investment industry on the 16th, the June CPI rose by 0.3% compared to the previous month, in line with market expectations. During the same period, the core CPI increase rate was 0.2%, which fell short of market expectations.
The inflationary pressure from the tariff policy of the U.S. administration under Donald Trump was limited. Consumer prices for automobiles fell for both new and used cars compared to the previous month. This means that corporations are not passing on the tariff increases to sale prices. On the other hand, prices for furniture and appliances, recreational goods, and clothing rose compared to the previous month.
Moon Da-won, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, said, "It is still difficult to gauge the effects of tariffs with the June CPI, and as existing inventory is depleted and completed vehicle manufacturers raise prices in the second half, the impact of tariffs will become significant."
On the contrary, some assessments note that the service price increase in June was burdensome as it recorded a level higher than expected. Housing expenses rose by 0.2% compared to the previous month, showing a slowdown in the rate of increase, but compared to the same month last year, the increase rate remains high at 3.8%. Additionally, the increase rates for medical services and auto insurance premiums expanded to 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively, compared to the previous month.
As a result, the increase rate of the core super core CPI, excluding food, energy, and dwelling costs, rose from 0.06% in May to 0.21% in June. This is an indicator that the Federal Reserve pays attention to.
Park Sang-hyun, a researcher at iM Securities, noted, "The inflation pressure stemming from the tariffs, which we were concerned about, remained at a limited level, but we were caught off guard by the stability of service prices that were expected. It seems that the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts will be maintained."