The running craze continues among those in their 2030s, but the stock prices of corporations that have emerged as new powerhouses in running shoes are somewhat faltering. This refers to Hoka and On Running, which have surpassed traditional powerhouses like Nike, Adidas, and Asics.
These brands gained popularity among youth due to their functionality and unique design, but recently the consumer demographic has expanded to those in their 4050s. While sales have increased and performance has improved, concerns are arising that their stock prices may have peaked. Analysts suggest that if the brand's main consumer base shifts to middle-aged consumers, it could be remembered as a ‘shoe brand for The Man from Nowhere,’ leading to stagnation in growth.
The stock price of Deckers Outdoor Corporation, the company that owns the outdoor running shoe brand Hoka, was $105.75 (approximately 144,500 won) as of the close on the 7th, which is less than half of its recent high of $223.11 over the past year (52 weeks). The stock price of On Holding, which owns the running shoe brand On Running, is $54.36, slightly below its recent high of $64.05 within the last year.
Deckers Outdoor has shown significant stock price underperformance, but its performance continues to trend upward. According to Deckers Outdoor, the revenue of the Hoka brand for the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, which closed at the end of March, was $508.6 million, an increase of about 10% compared to the same period last year.
The problem is that Hoka's growth rate, which exceeded 30%, has recently fallen short of its peak. Securities analysts had expected a growth rate of 14% for the last quarter, but the actual growth rate did not meet that expectation, falling below market expectations (consensus) for the first time since December 2021. If this trend continues, there are concerns that Hoka could become a stagnating brand rather than a growing one.
Local experts attribute the decline in direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales to the fact that consumers are buying through manufacturers instead of separate distributors. In fact, Deckers Outdoor is currently adjusting its sales strategy toward expanding partnerships rather than direct sales.
In Korea's securities market, a unique analysis has caught attention regarding the stagnation of Hoka's growth rate. The core of the argument is that Hoka, which has grown primarily among the 2030 running community, is no longer an attractive brand to them. Recently, interest in Hoka has expanded to middle-aged consumers in their 4050s, leading to an analysis that the main customer base, the younger 2030 demographic, is beginning to withdraw.
Yoo Jeong-hyun, a researcher at DAISHIN SECURITIES, noted, “The recent stagnation of shares related to Hoka and On Running is due to middle-aged individuals starting to wear them,” adding that “as Hoka and On Running are worn by middle-aged men, they have entered a cycle of declining growth and share prices, ending their growth cycle.”
Sportswear brands such as running shoes and athletic apparel are classified as discretionary consumer goods. Discretionary consumer goods refer to items that are not essential for daily life, like automobiles, travel, and fine dining. Consumption of discretionary goods occurs primarily among the younger demographic, and the fact that middle-aged individuals, who typically buy very few discretionary goods, have begun to make purchases suggests that ‘everyone who was going to buy has already bought.’
Researcher Yoo emphasized that there is “absolutely no intention to belittle The Man from Nowhere,” and explained, “There have been precedents, such as with Under Armour, where the brand value plummeted once it became associated with clothing for middle-aged individuals going hiking. Observing middle-aged individuals using the product causes the existing consumer base to associate it with ‘the brand that dad used to wear,’ leading them to withdraw.”