KakaoBank, which saw its stock price surge over 60% in the past month amid the craze for stablecoins, has now turned to a downward trend. Since its listing, the stock price has consistently failed to exceed the offering price, and the wait for employees who hoped for an escape after the employee stock ownership plan subscription has prolonged.
As of 11 a.m. on the 26th, KakaoBank shares are trading at 31,900 won, down over 12% from the previous day. Fuelled by the recent stablecoin craze in the stock market, KakaoBank's stock price exceeded 38,000 won at one point on the 24th, coming close to the offering price of 39,000 won. However, as interest in the stablecoin theme, which had boosted related stocks, has faded, the gap between the offering price and the stock price is widening again.
In the past three years, KakaoBank's stock price, which had been sluggish, recently showed a significant rise. The news that a consortium including KakaoBank received approval for a virtual bank in Thailand was also a positive factor, but its emergence as a beneficiary stock alongside Kakao Pay in the stablecoin sector had a major impact on its stock price.
A stablecoin is a virtual asset designed to maintain a stable price, linked to the value of legal currencies including the U.S. dollar. With stablecoin-related legislation (GENIUS Act) passing through the Senate in the United States and a won-based stablecoin bill being proposed in Korea, investors flocked to anticipated beneficiary stocks.
For employees who participated in the employee stock ownership plan during KakaoBank's initial public offering (IPO) in 2021, there was good news. There were expectations of finally being able to sell shares at a price higher than the offering price, generating investment profits. Immediately after its listing, KakaoBank's stock price exceeded 90,000 won, significantly above the offering price, but since employees have been able to dispose of their employee stocks, the price has consistently remained below the offering price.
Employee stocks are subject to a one-year lock-up period, so unless employees resign, they cannot sell their stocks for one year after the listing. KakaoBank employees subscribed to an average of 12,560 shares per person at the offering price of 39,000 won, amounting to approximately 490 million won.
The reason KakaoBank's stock price was sluggish was largely due to major shareholders, whose lock-up periods had ended, selling their shares right after the listing in an environment with tightened loan regulations. The situation worsened with a massive sell-off incident involving a Kakao Pay executive, causing KakaoBank's stock price to fluctuate between 25,000 won and 30,000 won since June 2022.
Employees had to watch the falling stock price. Given the large scale of purchases, it was difficult to implement the so-called 'averaging down.' As of the end of last year, the number of shares held by the employee stock ownership association was estimated to be about 201,000, meaning that approximately 1 in 6 employees still hold shares.
Now, four years after its listing, an unexpected wind in the form of the stablecoin craze has blown, but the wait for employees is likely to be longer.
In particular, while Kakao Pay's stock price briefly exceeded the offering price (90,000 won) on the 23rd and 25th, KakaoBank did not record a stock price above the offering price during this rally.
Global investment banks (IB) such as JPMorgan and HSBC have warned that expectations regarding won-based stablecoins may be excessive. IB experts pointed out that, unlike dollar-based stablecoins, won-based stablecoins have limitations on scalability, and the bill has merely been proposed, thus making it impossible to gauge the actual business model.
Before the stablecoin frenzy, the target stock price presented by securities firms for KakaoBank was an average of 27,700 won.