Certified public accountants forecast that the economy will still be sluggish in the third quarter (July to September), but expectations for economic recovery are increasing due to the new government's policies.
According to the 'second quarter economic sentiment index as viewed by certified public accountants (CPA BSI)' released on the 25th by The Korean Institute of Certified Public Accountants, the economic situation BSI evaluated by accountants for the second quarter of this year was 67, and the third quarter outlook BSI was recorded at 88.
The BSI is based on a scale of 100, where a score exceeding 100 indicates an economic improvement, while a score below 100 indicates an economic decline.
The current BSI showed a slight increase compared to the first quarter (60). Factors such as delays in global economic recovery, high inflation, high-interest rates, and increased geopolitical risks dampening global consumption and investment, as well as domestic export and consumer slowdown, were reflected.
The third quarter outlook BSI also reflected forecasts that the economy would be sluggish, but it was found to have increased compared to the previous quarter, indicating expectations for economic recovery.
The researcher noted, 'There are many factors affecting economic sluggishness, such as the possibility of worsening external conditions, delays in resolving geopolitical risks, and global supply chain issues, but expectations for the new government's active response to the economy have had a positive impact.'
Accountants identified the key detailed factors likely to affect Korea's economy over the next year as ▲ global economic trends (41.3%) ▲ changes in government policies (18.5%) ▲ changes in monetary policy direction and funding environment (8.7%) ▲ raw material prices and inflation (6.1%) ▲ household and corporate liabilities (5.3%).
The industry-specific current BSI was surveyed at shipbuilding (150), finance (97), information and communication (97), and pharmaceuticals and bio (95). Most industries, except for shipbuilding, fell below the baseline (100), indicating that industry conditions are assessed to be sluggish.
The industry-specific outlook BSI was recorded above the baseline at shipbuilding (144), pharmaceuticals and bio (109), electronics (104), and finance (102). Additionally, the petrochemical, construction, and distribution sectors also showed significant increases compared to the previous quarter, but they remained below the baseline (100), indicating that the recovery trend is insufficient.