The KOSPI index rose for 7 consecutive trading days. The impact of foreign investors entering the market to buy, supported by the trade negotiations between the United States and China finding consensus and the strengthening of the Korean won, was significant. The new government’s emphasis on expanding fiscal policies along with revitalizing the capital market is also fueling the rise. Securities firms predict that the KOSPI index may exceed the 3,000 mark based on this.
According to the Korea Exchange on the 13th, the KOSPI index closed at 2,920.03 the previous day. It has risen 21.69% since the beginning of the year. This is the highest among major stock indices in the U.S., Europe, and China.
Securities firms are also raising their KOSPI index forecasts. KB Securities predicts the KOSPI index will rise to 3,240 by the first half of 2026. While uncertainties remain regarding tariffs from the Donald Trump administration, they evaluate that the Korean stock market will show relatively high defensiveness supported by the weakness of the dollar, domestic stimulus measures, and ongoing capital market reforms. In particular, they believe that with the tariff war entering a consensus phase in the fourth quarter of this year (October to December), the KOSPI index is likely to continue its bullish trend.
Kiwoom Securities has raised its forecast range for the KOSPI index fluctuations in the second half of this year from the previous 2,400-2,900 to 2,600-3,150. Additionally, they suggested KOSPI index upper limits of 3,100 from NH Investment & Securities and IBK Securities, 3,050 from Eugene Securities, and 3,000 from Daishin Securities.
Global investment banks are optimistic about the Korean stock market. JPMorgan forecasts that the KOSPI index will rise to 3,200 within 12 months. Under the base scenario, they open the possibility of reaching 3,600 under a bullish scenario.
JPMorgan noted, "The long-term impact of the corporate law revision on Korean governance should not be exaggerated," while stating, "The shareholder-friendly corporate law revision is a meaningful change and is attracting the interest of foreign investors."
Goldman Sachs has also upgraded its investment opinion on the Korean stock market from 'neutral' to 'overweight.' They raised the upper limit of the KOSPI index within 12 months from 2,900 to 3,100.
However, as the KOSPI index has risen sharply, profit realization sales may occur, leading to market adjustments. There remain significant external variables such as trade negotiations with the United States and geopolitical crises in the Middle East.
In particular, evaluations have emerged that corporate profits need to increase to maintain the KOSPI index above 3,000. Kim Byeong-yeon, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, stated, "For the KOSPI index to settle above 3,000, it must justify a valuation of over 11 times the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER), which is market capitalization divided by net income, alongside confidence in growth." He also noted, "An increase in export growth rates, a reduction in tariffs on specific items, and a rise in corporate profits are necessary."