The KOSPI index surpassed the 2,800 mark for the first time in about 10 months, while Samsung Electronics also experienced a significant rebound. Samsung Electronics' stock closed at 59,200 won on the 5th, approaching the 60,000 won mark. If the rebound of Samsung Electronics continues, there is keen interest in whether it will add upward momentum to the index.
The KOSPI index rose by 4.2% over three trading days in June due to the impact of the new government taking office. The sectors leading the rise in the stock market were defense, shipbuilding, machinery, and finance, which have taken the lead as dominant stocks this year. The ‘big hands’ of the stock market, foreign investors, have driven the index up by focusing on buying these sectors.
Hanwha Aerospace's market capitalization jumped from 12th place at the beginning of the year to 5th place now, and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries has entered the top 10 in terms of market capitalization. KB Financial's market capitalization ranking rose from 8th to 6th.
During the same period, Samsung Electronics' stock rose by 5.2%. As Samsung Electronics accounts for 20% of the KOSPI index and has significant influence on the domestic stock market, investor expectations are increasing that if Samsung Electronics rebounds, the index may also rise further.
In particular, as foreign investors return to the stock market, the buying trend of foreign investors in Samsung Electronics has not yet been clearly detected. If foreign investors resume buying Samsung Electronics, it indicates a strong possibility of lifting not only Samsung Electronics but also the entire index.
Currently, the foreign ownership ratio of Samsung Electronics stands at 49.6%, similar to the low recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic (49.2%). Kang Jin-hyuk, a researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., noted, “Although doubts about Samsung Electronics' technological capabilities have been raised, if tariffs, economic concerns are alleviated and risk asset preferences recover, there is a possibility that foreign capital supply will increase,” and added, “If several stocks can hold their ground while being accompanied by strong performance from Samsung Electronics, we can expect further upward movement in the index.”
Investors are also paying attention to the recent reversal of the strengthening of the won. The won-dollar exchange rate, which surpassed 1,460 won at the beginning of the year, has recently fallen to around 1,350 won. A decline in the won-dollar exchange rate increases the revenue of stock returns calculated in dollars, which typically leads to an influx of foreign buying into domestic stocks.
However, while a short-term rebound is expected, many believe it is challenging to anticipate a significant upward trend. Kim Kwang-jin, a researcher at Hanwha Investment & Securities, stated, “The key factor that will determine Samsung Electronics' performance and stock direction going forward is not the shipment volume of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) but whether it can narrow the technology gap with competitors,” adding, “As there is still a technology gap of over six months with HBM3E 12-layer and the next-generation HBM4, reducing this period is essential for the stock's direction.”
Noh Geun-chang, a researcher at Hyundai Motor Securities, also said, “If we do not confirm the fundamental competitiveness of HBM, it would be better to approach it from a box range perspective.”